Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live

2026-27 · Regular season

NBA predictions

29 games in the next 4 days · model updated 12:48 AM ET

Live updating ·

Games

The filled side of each bar is the pick. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

Today10 games

MNMT, DAZN IND

Wizards

4-7

40%

Pacers

3-8

60%
Pick INDLeanLine IND -3.5
ESPN

Cavaliers

5-6

40%

Knicks

6-4

60%
Pick NYLeanLine NY -3.5

Celtics

9-2

71%

Raptors

5-5

29%
Pick BOSStrongLine BOS -7.5
DAZN SAS

Spurs

9-2

89%

Bulls

1-8

11%
Pick SAStrongLine SA -15.5

Nuggets

5-4

59%

Grizzlies

7-3

41%
Pick DENLeanLine DEN -4.5
Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, MyMi, Bucks App

Lakers

10-2

82%

Bucks

1-10

18%
Pick LALStrongLine LAL -11.5
DAZN (YES), GCSEN, Pelicans.com

Nets

2-8

37%

Pelicans

4-7

63%
Pick NOSolidLine NO -4.5
KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Magic

3-7

67%

Jazz

1-10

33%
Pick ORLSolidPre-line forecast
ESPN

Warriors

8-3

32%

Rockets

8-3

68%
Pick HOUSolidLine HOU -6.5
KUNP 16, BlazerVision, KSBI, Thunder App

Thunder

8-2

55%

Trail Blazers

6-3

45%
Pick OKCToss-upPre-line forecast

Friday, November 139 games

NBA Cup - Group Play

Knicks

6-4

77%

Pacers

3-8

23%
Pick NYStrongPre-line forecast
NBA Cup - Group Play

Bucks

1-10

26%

Magic

3-7

74%
Pick ORLStrongPre-line forecast
NBA Cup - Group Play

Cavaliers

5-6

50%

Heat

5-6

50%
Pick MIAToss-upPre-line forecast
NBA Cup - Group Play

Hawks

7-5

71%

Bulls

1-8

29%
Pick ATLStrongPre-line forecast
NBA Cup - Group Play

Grizzlies

7-3

52%

Pelicans

4-7

48%
Pick MEMToss-upPre-line forecast
NBA Cup - Group Play

Jazz

1-10

9%

Rockets

8-3

91%
Pick HOUStrongPre-line forecast
NBA Cup - Group Play

Warriors

8-3

29%

Spurs

9-2

71%
Pick SAStrongPre-line forecast
NBA Cup - Group Play

Trail Blazers

6-3

78%

Kings

1-10

22%
Pick PORStrongPre-line forecast
NBA Cup - Group Play

Thunder

8-2

72%

Clippers

2-8

28%
Pick OKCStrongPre-line forecast

Power rankings

Elo from results: 1500 is average, and 100 points is about a 64% favorite on a neutral field. Market is the same scale, learned from closing lines.

#TeamEloSeasonMarketTrend
1Thunder8-21674+401688 #2
2Spurs9-21670+321699 #1
3Knicks6-41658−151629 #6
4Celtics9-21650+621687 #3
5Timberwolves8-31638+791599 #8
6Lakers10-21625+581608 #7
7Pistons7-31612+451631 #4
8Rockets8-31604+481630 #5
9Warriors8-31550+811536 #13
10Cavaliers5-61548−91563 #9
11Nuggets5-41542−291549 #11
12Hawks7-51522+101555 #10
13Raptors5-51521−41537 #12
1476ers9-31511−61514 #14
15Trail Blazers6-31506+151501 #16
16Clippers2-81491−371483 #19
17Suns4-61491−141492 #18
18Hornets4-71486−701479 #20
19Magic3-71476−411494 #17
20Mavericks7-41468+521443 #21
21Heat5-61460−361513 #15
22Grizzlies7-31443+571419 #23
23Pelicans4-71421−71421 #22
24Pacers3-81380−361362 #25
25Bulls1-81371−361384 #24
26Bucks1-101360−791340 #26
27Kings1-101352−691270 #30
28Nets2-81335−281320 #29
29Wizards4-71326−41331 #27
30Jazz1-101309−571322 #28

Biggest games ahead

The coming games with the most playoff chance riding on them, from the season simulation.

Ratings vs. the line

Biggest gaps between our Elo ratings and the market. The market has been the more accurate of the two.

Recent results

Latest graded picks.

ORL 107 @ SAC 100

Final

ORL 68%

Hit

MIA 115 @ UTAH 109

Final

MIA 78%

Hit

LAC 110 @ PHX 133

Final

PHX 62%

Hit

BOS 123 @ PHI 101

Final

BOS 53%

Hit

MIL 85 @ NY 117

Final

NY 88%

Hit

NO 87 @ GS 138

Final

GS 74%

Hit

SA 122 @ PHX 96

Final

SA 75%

Hit

DEN 100 @ HOU 110

Final

HOU 74%

Hit

IND 122 @ DAL 125

Final

DAL 61%

Hit

MEM 118 @ TOR 102

Final

TOR 57%

Miss

WSH 111 @ DET 122

Final

DET 79%

Hit

CLE 112 @ CHA 124

Final

CLE 72%

Miss

Team stats

This season, regular season. Sort by any column. Opp. Elo is how strong the teams each has played are. Home and road leave out neutral-site games. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

#Team
1BOS+11.7115.7104.05–04–29–11468
2SA+11.7118.7107.04–25–09–11470
3MIN+11.1118.1107.04–14–27–31492
4GS+9.2120.4111.26–12–28–21518
5HOU+9.1115.5106.45–13–27–31546
6NY+8.3110.6102.34–22–26–41475
7DET+8.1112.7104.63–24–17–31505
8OKC+8.0112.2104.25–03–28–21513
9LAL+7.7122.1114.45–15–18–21489
10MEM+7.1117.9110.82–35–07–31437
11POR+5.6119.3113.81–25–1—1505
12DAL+4.6114.9110.35–22–27–31494
13TOR+3.3116.6113.32–23–35–51475
14ATL+2.1118.3116.23–34–25–51466
15CLE+1.5116.5115.04–21–45–51518
16PHI+1.0110.2109.24–25–17–31521
17DEN+0.8113.6112.82–22–2—1508
18IND−3.8111.4115.20–43–32–81442
19MIA−4.3115.7120.01–34–35–51494
20NO−4.9117.5122.43–31–44–61461
21WSH−5.3108.1113.42–22–53–71507
22PHX−5.3112.8118.14–30–34–61557
23LAC−5.9112.2118.12–30–52–81536
24ORL−7.6107.0114.60–43–33–71523
25BKN−9.0106.7115.71–31–52–81519
26UTAH−11.2106.5117.61–50–51–91524
27CHA−11.598.8110.43–41–33–71476
28SAC−12.7108.3121.00–61–41–91516
29MIL−14.9106.3121.21–50–51–91532
30CHI−16.7112.7129.30–31–5—1538

Season projections

10,000 simulations of the 1,041 regular-season games left, then the playoffs. Re-run every 15 minutes; last at 12:44 AM ET.

Eastern Conference

TeamProjectedPlayoffsTitle
Celtics61-2155–66 W>99%26%
Pistons55-2750–61 W>99%8%
Knicks54-2848–60 W>99%8%
Hawks47-3541–53 W93%1%
Cavaliers47-3541–53 W92%1%
76ers47-3541–52 W90%<1%
Raptors43-3937–49 W78%<1%
Heat42-4036–48 W69%<1%
Magic39-4333–45 W45%<1%
Hornets37-4531–43 W32%<1%
Bulls27-5521–32 W1%<1%
Wizards26-5620–31 W1%<1%
Pacers26-5620–31 W1%<1%
Nets23-5917–28 W<1%<1%
Bucks22-6017–28 W<1%<1%

Western Conference

TeamProjectedPlayoffsTitle
Spurs61-2156–67 W>99%26%
Thunder60-2255–65 W>99%21%
Rockets55-2750–61 W>99%5%
Lakers55-2749–60 W99%3%
Timberwolves52-3046–58 W97%2%
Warriors47-3541–53 W86%<1%
Nuggets46-3640–52 W82%<1%
Trail Blazers43-3937–49 W58%<1%
Suns40-4234–46 W35%<1%
Mavericks37-4531–43 W18%<1%
Clippers36-4630–42 W15%<1%
Grizzlies35-4729–40 W8%<1%
Pelicans31-5125–37 W2%<1%
Jazz20-6215–25 W<1%<1%
Kings17-6512–22 W<1%<1%

Every game uses the pre-line forecast: team ratings and home field, plus rest, travel and any announced starters or injuries for games in the next few weeks. Each simulation also shifts every team’s rating by a random amount (standard deviation 30 Elo) because ratings are estimates and teams change. Ties in the standings are broken by coin flip, not the league’s tiebreaker rules.

The top six in each conference go straight to the playoffs and 7–10 play the play-in (7 vs 8 and 9 vs 10, then the 7/8 loser hosts the 9/10 winner). “Playoffs” means reaching the 16-team bracket. Series are best of seven, with home court to the higher seed.

Each team still has 2 games to be scheduled (the NBA sets them after the Cup group stage); they’re played against a league-average opponent.

Records are simulation averages, rounded. The range is the middle 80% of simulated win totals; when past seasons were re-run from their quarter, half and three-quarter marks, final win totals landed inside it 61% of the time, so treat NBA ranges as narrower than reality: late-season tanking and resting move records more than ratings can see.

Track record

Every NBA game since 2024-25, graded against the forecast the app would have shown beforehand. 68.9% correct overall.

Forecast correct

68.9%

1,923 of 2,790 · Brier 0.198

Before the line

68.8%

Every game as if no line were posted · Brier 0.200

Elo ratings alone

67.5%

Brier 0.205 · same games

Betting market alone

68.9%

Closing line on file for 100% of games

Always picking home

54.8%

The no-skill baseline

Calibration

When the forecast says 65%, does that team win about 65% of the time?

30%50%70%90%50%60%70%80%90%100%Model confidence in its pickperfect calibration
Show as table
ConfidenceGamesStatedWon
50%–55%34152.5%49.6%
55%–60%43357.4%59.4%
60%–65%39262.4%61.5%
65%–70%38867.4%65.2%
70%–75%36072.3%75.3%
75%–80%29377.4%75.8%
80%–85%28682.4%81.1%
85%–90%21787.2%91.7%
90%–95%7891.7%98.7%
95%–100%295.8%100.0%

By confidence

ConfidenceGamesWon

Strong

70%+ win probability

1,236
81.1%

Solid

62–70%

611
64.6%

Lean

55–62%

602
59.1%

Toss-up

Under 55%

341
49.6%

By season

SeasonGamesCorrectBrier
2024-251,31568.7%0.201
2025-261,31668.7%0.197
2026-2715973.0%0.182