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Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Hawks

7-5

71%

at

Home

Bulls

1-8

29%

The pick
ATL · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
123–116
Fair odds
-250

Your pick

United Center

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Hawks at 71%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Hawks rate higher (1522 to 1371 Elo), the Bulls have home court and lineup changes favor the Hawks.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Hawks

Now 93%

93%

with a win

92%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

Bulls

Now 1%

2%

with a win

1%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

How the forecast moved

CHI went from 29% to 29% over 2 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (CHI win chance) Betting line, margin removed
20%28%35%Mon 10 PMTue 11 AMWed 12 AM

The pick

Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Hawks 71%

Strong
ATL 71%CHI 29%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
ATL 71%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
ATL -5
ATL 69%
Fair odds
ATL -250
CHI +250 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
ATL 123.0 – 116.0 CHI
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorATLCHIWhy
Team rating15221371Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−11−37ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Missing Norman Powell (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsATL +141 EloATL 69.3%
Market-implied ratingsATL 71.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastATL 71.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls compared, with each team's league rank
ATLStatCHI
5th of 30118.3Points scored112.718th of 30
22nd of 30116.2Points allowed129.330th of 30
14th of 30+2.1Margin−16.730th of 30
14th of 30112.6Offense rating105.426th of 30
13th of 30110.7Defense rating121.030th of 30
2nd of 30104.9Pace107.01st of 30
7th of 304–2Road vs home0–327th of 30
27th of 301466Opponent Elo15383rd of 30
12th of 301522Elo rating137125th of 30
4th of 30+2.3Offense, adjusted+0.912th of 30
21st of 30−1.6Defense, adjusted−7.530th of 30

Player props

Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.

Your parlay →
PlayerProjLineOverParlay
Jalen JohnsonATL19.4—— No line
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL19.1—— No line
Norman PowellCHI60% to play17.5—— No line
Caleb WilsonCHI15.9—— No line
Matas BuzelisCHI14.0—— No line
CJ McCollumATL13.9—— No line
Onyeka OkongwuATL13.2—— No line
Josh GiddeyCHI12.7—— No line
Aaron WigginsATL11.6—— No line
Jalen SmithCHI10.5—— No line
Dyson DanielsATL10.3—— No line
Tre JonesCHI9.6—— No line
Kingston FlemingsATL8.8—— No line
Nic ClaxtonCHI8.2—— No line
Luguentz DortATL7.4—— No line
Isaac OkoroCHI6.4—— No line
Leonard MillerCHI5.8—— No line
Jalen WilsonATL5.5—— No line
Noa EssengueCHI4.7—— No line
Patrick WilliamsCHI4.7—— No line

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Hawks

−11 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jalen Johnson3123.3Available
Nickeil Alexander-Walker2920.3Available
Dyson Daniels2820.5Available
Onyeka Okongwu2820.7Available
Aaron Wiggins2219.3Available
CJ McCollum2220.1Available
Luguentz Dort2214.2Available
Kingston Flemings2117.1Available
Jalen Wilson1211.6Available
Jock Landale918.8Available
Zuby Ejiofor618.4Available
RayJ Dennis516.0Available

Bulls

−37 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Josh Giddey2820.9Available
Caleb Wilson2716.3Available
Matas Buzelis2515.9Available
Jalen Smith2120.7Available
Nic Claxton2015.1Available
Isaac Okoro1912.3Available
Tre Jones1720.2Available
Norman Powell1521.2Day-To-Day−9
Patrick Williams1410.7Available
Noa Essengue1214.8Available
Leonard Miller1217.2Available
Jordan Hawkins911.8Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

HawksBulls
1300135014001450150015501600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Hawks

4 listed

  • Asa Newell F

    Out

    Newell (toe) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Lakers.

  • Keshon Gilbert G

    Out

    Gilbert (knee) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Lakers.

  • Mouhamed Gueye F

    Out

    Gueye underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a fractured left foot that he suffered during a workout last week, Brad Rowland of the Locked On Podcast Network reports.

  • Henri Veesaar C

    Out

    Veesaar was diagnosed with a torn right ACL and is expected to miss the 2026-27 season, the Hawks announced Monday.

Bulls

3 listed

  • Norman Powell G

    −9 EloDay-To-Day

    28 min a game when healthy · 21.2 Game Score per 48

    Powell (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Spurs.

  • Tobe Awaka F

    Day-To-Day

    Awaka (back) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

  • Zach Collins F

    Day-To-Day

    Collins (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonATLCHI
Against the spread3–54–5
Last 103–54–5
Favorite2–30–1
Underdog1–24–4
Overs–unders4–46–3
Overs–unders, last 104–46–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ATL 3–7 CHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.