Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Kristaps PorzingisPoints27
- Trae YoungAssists17
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds10
Bulls- Ayo DosunmuPoints21
- Nikola VucevicAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–128
- Q40.9Tre Jones defensive rebound123–128
- Q43.3Trae Young misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot123–128
- Q47.7Luke Kennard enters the game for Dyson Daniels123–128
- Q47.7Hawks Full timeout123–128
- Q47.7Tre Jones makes free throw 2 of 2123–128
- Q47.7Tre Jones makes free throw 1 of 2123–127
- Q47.7Trae Young personal take foul123–126
- Q412.9Josh Giddey offensive rebound123–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:02Ayo Dosunmu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)ATL 112 – 111 CHI · CHI 25% → 42% +17CHI 25% → 42%+17 pts
- Q44:12Ayo Dosunmu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)ATL 114 – 116 CHI · CHI 41% → 62% +21CHI 41% → 62%+21 pts
- Q43:20Jalen Johnson makes layup (Kristaps Porzingis assists)ATL 116 – 116 CHI · ATL 36% → 51% +15ATL 36% → 51%+15 pts
- Q42:46Kristaps Porzingis makes dunk (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 118 – 118 CHI · ATL 34% → 51% +17ATL 34% → 51%+17 pts
- Q42:30Matas Buzelis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)ATL 118 – 121 CHI · CHI 49% → 74% +26CHI 49% → 74%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML ATL -135 / CHI +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- ATL 38%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 37.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- CHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 123.0 – 120.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | +12 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +88 Elo | CHI 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 117.86th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 119.428th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.620th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 113.819th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.4 | Pace | 104.52nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 18–2323rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301462 | Elo rating | 154111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  ATL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–41 | 44–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–19 | 12–10 |
| Underdog | 28–22 | 32–27 |
| Overs–unders | 50–32 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–4 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.