Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints23
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Isaiah StewartRebounds10
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints28
- Josh GiddeyAssists11
- Nikola VucevicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–115
- Q40.3Pistons offensive team rebound111–115
- Q40.3Ronald Holland II misses 33-foot three point shot111–115
- Q43.1Josh Giddey makes free throw 2 of 2111–115
- Q43.1Bulls offensive team rebound111–114
- Q43.1Josh Giddey misses free throw 1 of 2111–114
- Q43.1Caris LeVert enters the game for Cade Cunningham111–114
- Q43.1Cade Cunningham personal foul111–114
- Q43.1Josh Giddey defensive rebound111–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:54Ronald Holland II makes 23-foot three point shot (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 105 – 105 CHI · DET 29% → 53% +24DET 29% → 53%+24 pts
- Q42:05Matas Buzelis makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Tre Jones assists)DET 107 – 109 CHI · CHI 48% → 67% +19CHI 48% → 67%+19 pts
- Q41:47Cade Cunningham makes driving layupDET 109 – 109 CHI · DET 31% → 52% +21DET 31% → 52%+21 pts
- Q41:31Nikola Vucevic makes 2-foot hook shot (Josh Giddey assists)DET 109 – 111 CHI · CHI 48% → 70% +22CHI 48% → 70%+22 pts
- Q419.9Cade Cunningham makes driving layup (Jalen Duren assists)DET 111 – 112 CHI · DET 3% → 27% +24DET 3% → 27%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML DET -175 / CHI +150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- DET 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.2 pts
- DET: Elo 47.2%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -159
- CHI +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 120.0 – 116.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | −4 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +19 Elo | CHI 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 117.86th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 119.428th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.9 | Margin | −1.620th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 113.819th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 104.52nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 18–2323rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 152313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  DET |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–42 | 44–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–23 | 12–10 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 32–27 |
| Overs–unders | 45–43 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–3 CHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Feb 12DET 128 @ CHI 110Picked DET 67%Hit
- Feb 11DET 132 @ CHI 92Picked DET 64%Hit
- Feb 2CHI 119 @ DET 127Picked DET 67%Hit
- Nov 18CHI 122 @ DET 112Picked DET 61%Miss
- Apr 11CHI 127 @ DET 105Picked CHI 66%Hit
- Feb 27DET 105 @ CHI 95Picked CHI 79%Miss
- Nov 12DET 108 @ CHI 119Picked CHI 59%Hit
- Oct 28CHI 102 @ DET 118Picked DET 58%Hit