Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints30
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Haywood HighsmithRebounds8
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints28
- Josh GiddeyAssists11
- Josh GiddeyRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–119
- Q419.0Josh Giddey defensive rebound111–119
- Q419.0Davion Mitchell misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot111–119
- Q423.0Coby White makes 3-foot layup (Josh Giddey assists)111–119
- Q424.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Kyle Anderson111–117
- Q424.1Bulls Full timeout111–117
- Q424.1Davion Mitchell personal take foul111–117
- Q425.1Tyler Herro makes tip shot111–117
- Q426.1Tyler Herro offensive rebound109–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:38Nikola Vucevic makes 27-foot three point shot (Josh Giddey assists)MIA 46 – 48 CHI · CHI 44% → 53% +8CHI 44% → 53%+8 pts
- Q20.1Dalen Terry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)MIA 52 – 58 CHI · CHI 56% → 65% +8CHI 56% → 65%+8 pts
- Q38:27Andrew Wiggins makes 27-foot three pointerMIA 63 – 68 CHI · MIA 28% → 37% +9MIA 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q38:02Josh Giddey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)MIA 65 – 71 CHI · CHI 57% → 66% +9CHI 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q46:26Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Haywood Highsmith assists)MIA 95 – 100 CHI · MIA 13% → 25% +11MIA 13% → 25%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -1.5
- ML MIA -130 / CHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- MIA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 48.1%, market 53.7%
- Fair odds
- MIA -116
- CHI +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 114.5 – 113.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +11 | +15 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +13 Elo | CHI 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 53.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 117.76th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 120.128th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −2.420th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 112.220th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 114.424th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.2 | Pace | 104.52nd of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 16–2324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–42 | 41–37 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–22 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 17–20 | 31–27 |
| Overs–unders | 41–38 | 41–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–4 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.