Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints27
- DeMar DeRozanAssists5
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints28
- Kyle LowryAssists7
- Kevin LoveRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–118
- Q40.0(00:00) [Bulls] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)116–118
- Q40.0Jimmy Butler makes 19-foot step back jumpshot116–118
- Q412.1Jimmy Butler defensive rebound116–116
- Q414.2Nikola Vucevic misses 10-foot two point shot116–116
- Q431.0Kyle Lowry makes two point shot (Caleb Martin assists)116–116
- Q434.1DeMar DeRozan lost ball turnover (Jimmy Butler steals)116–114
- Q443.0DeMar DeRozan offensive rebound116–114
- Q445.0Nikola Vucevic misses 4-foot two point shot116–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:14Coby White makes 27-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)CHI 114 – 112 MIA · CHI 38% → 67% +28CHI 38% → 67%+28 pts
- Q41:43Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Kyle Lowry assists)CHI 114 – 114 MIA · MIA 31% → 52% +21MIA 31% → 52%+21 pts
- Q41:28Coby White makes 2-foot two point shotCHI 116 – 114 MIA · CHI 48% → 71% +23CHI 48% → 71%+23 pts
- Q431.0Kyle Lowry makes two point shot (Caleb Martin assists)CHI 116 – 116 MIA · MIA 16% → 51% +35MIA 16% → 51%+35 pts
- Q40.0Jimmy Butler makes 19-foot step back jumpshotCHI 116 – 118 MIA · MIA 53% → 100% +47MIA 53% → 100%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2.5
- MIA 60%
- Fair odds
- MIA -147
- CHI +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 110.6 – 113.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | +27 | CHI: Missing Alex Caruso −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +73 Elo | MIA 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 59.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.7 | Points scored | 112.820th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 111.810th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.8 | Margin | +1.016th of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 113.813th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 99.226th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–9 | Road vs home | 6–518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+18 Elo- Alex Caruso injury/illness−1 Elo
Heat
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 2–1 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.