Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints24
- DeMar DeRozanAssists10
- Nikola VucevicRebounds16
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints21
- Tre JonesAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–112
- Q415.0Torrey Craig defensive rebound121–112
- Q420.0Devin Vassell misses 26-foot step back jumpshot121–112
- Q428.0shot clock turnover121–112
- Q450.2Torrey Craig defensive rebound121–112
- Q454.1Victor Wembanyama misses 27-foot three point jumper121–112
- Q455.1Coby White traveling121–112
- Q457.0Tre Jones personal foul121–112
- Q41:00Torrey Craig offensive rebound121–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:27Torrey Craig makes 23-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 92 – 90 SA · CHI 48% → 61% +13CHI 48% → 61%+13 pts
- Q47:49Doug McDermott makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)CHI 99 – 98 SA · SA 28% → 43% +14SA 28% → 43%+14 pts
- Q47:33Coby White makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (DeMar DeRozan assists)CHI 102 – 98 SA · CHI 57% → 72% +15CHI 57% → 72%+15 pts
- Q45:30Torrey Craig makes 26-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 107 – 102 SA · CHI 64% → 79% +15CHI 64% → 79%+15 pts
- Q44:49Torrey Craig makes 27-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 110 – 105 SA · CHI 65% → 81% +16CHI 65% → 81%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- CHI 62%
- Fair odds
- CHI -125
- SA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 114.3 – 112.7 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1385 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | −39 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +85 Elo | CHI 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 110.725th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 122.828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.7 | Margin | −12.230th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 105.128th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 116.725th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 104.24th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 1–928th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.