Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints27
- DeMar DeRozanAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds9
Nets- Spencer DinwiddiePoints24
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists7
- Royce O'NealeRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–118
- Q44.1shot clock turnover109–118
- Q428.1Coby White makes 23-foot running pullup jump shot109–118
- Q433.1DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound106–118
- Q436.1Dorian Finney-Smith misses 23-foot three point jumper106–118
- Q458.0Coby White makes driving layup106–118
- Q41:04Spencer Dinwiddie makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Trendon Watford assists)104–118
- Q41:29Patrick Williams makes free throw 2 of 2104–116
- Q41:29Patrick Williams makes free throw 1 of 2103–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:46Lonnie Walker IV makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)CHI 41 – 38 BKN · BKN 43% → 50% +8BKN 43% → 50%+8 pts
- Q25:59Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)CHI 41 – 41 BKN · BKN 50% → 58% +8BKN 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q25:27Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)CHI 41 – 44 BKN · BKN 58% → 65% +8BKN 58% → 65%+8 pts
- Q23:36Dorian Finney-Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)CHI 46 – 49 BKN · BKN 58% → 65% +8BKN 58% → 65%+8 pts
- Q22:34Royce O'Neale makes 27-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)CHI 49 – 54 BKN · BKN 63% → 70% +8BKN 63% → 70%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -3.5
- BKN 64%
- Fair odds
- BKN -149
- CHI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 110.6 – 113.7 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −25 | +23 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Nic Claxton −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +99 Elo | BKN 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 59.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.5 | Points scored | 115.111th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 114.920th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.4 | Margin | +0.217th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 114.09th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 113.821st of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.3 | Pace | 100.321st of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 4–418th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+23 Elo- Nic Claxton left ankle sprain−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.