Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints45
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists12
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints43
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Clint CapelaRebounds15
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game145–147
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime145–147
- OT2.0Lonnie Walker IV enters the game for Day'Ron Sharpe145–147
- OT2.0Saddiq Bey enters the game for Bogdan Bogdanovic145–147
- OT2.0Onyeka Okongwu enters the game for Trae Young145–147
- OT2.0Nets Full timeout145–147
- OT2.0Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2145–147
- OT2.0Hawks offensive team rebound145–146
- OT2.0Trae Young misses free throw 1 of 2145–146
- OT2.0Day'Ron Sharpe enters the game for Nic Claxton145–146
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43.1Cameron Johnson makes tip shotBKN 131 – 130 ATL · BKN 6% → 94% +89BKN 6% → 94%+89 pts
- Q41.0Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2BKN 131 – 131 ATL · ATL <1% → 50% +50ATL <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT45.2Trae Young makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotBKN 141 – 142 ATL · ATL 35% → 67% +32ATL 35% → 67%+32 pts
- OT28.1Mikal Bridges makes 12-foot pullup jump shotBKN 143 – 142 ATL · BKN 29% → 70% +40BKN 29% → 70%+40 pts
- OT18.0Trae Young makes 19-foot step back jumpshotBKN 143 – 144 ATL · ATL 26% → 75% +49ATL 26% → 75%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -130
- BKN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 116.1 – 118.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +17 | +77 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +45 Elo | ATL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 122.43rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 120.925th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.514th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 117.84th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 116.324th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 104.03rd of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 15th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 2–524th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.