Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints20
- Corey KispertAssists4
- Deni AvdijaRebounds9
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints27
- Dennis Smith Jr.Assists6
- Mikal BridgesRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–102
- Q412.2Bilal Coulibaly makes 1-foot driving dunk94–102
- Q417.1Spencer Dinwiddie makes free throw 2 of 292–102
- Q417.1Spencer Dinwiddie makes free throw 1 of 292–101
- Q417.1Landry Shamet enters the game for Jordan Poole92–100
- Q417.1Jordan Poole personal foul92–100
- Q417.1Nets offensive team rebound92–100
- Q420.1Mikal Bridges misses free throw 2 of 292–100
- Q420.1Mikal Bridges makes free throw 1 of 292–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:44Bilal Coulibaly makes 23-foot three point shot (Deni Avdija assists)WSH 85 – 82 BKN · WSH 45% → 62% +16WSH 45% → 62%+16 pts
- Q44:41Jordan Poole makes 24-foot step back jumpshotWSH 90 – 87 BKN · WSH 46% → 65% +20WSH 46% → 65%+20 pts
- Q43:09Cameron Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)WSH 92 – 90 BKN · BKN 18% → 37% +20BKN 18% → 37%+20 pts
- Q42:26Mikal Bridges makes two point shot (Nic Claxton assists)WSH 92 – 92 BKN · BKN 35% → 53% +18BKN 35% → 53%+18 pts
- Q41:28Mikal Bridges makes 9-foot two point shotWSH 92 – 95 BKN · BKN 64% → 83% +19BKN 64% → 83%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -4
- BKN 65%
- Fair odds
- BKN -169
- WSH +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 114.5 – 118.5 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −43 | 0 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +108 Elo | BKN 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 62.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 114.412th of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.5 | Points allowed | 115.419th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.5 | Margin | −1.015th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 113.27th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 114.224th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.1 | Pace | 101.121st of 30 |
| 25th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 1–324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.