NFL · Week of Thursday, November 12
Fantasy rankings
Projected points for this week's games, from the same player model behind our props. Ranked by points, discounted for the chance he sits. Tap + on two players to compare them.
On a bye: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.
| # | Player | Game | Proj | Range | L3 | Avg | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR1 | CeeDee LambDAL vs SF · | vs SF | 21.8 | 12–30 | 24.2 | 22.4 | |
| QB1 | Joe BurrowCIN vs PIT · | vs PIT | 20.7 | 14–27 | 32.6 | 25.1 | |
| QB2 | Tyler ShoughNO vs CAR · | vs CAR | 20.4 | 13–26 | 20.2 | 19.0 | |
| QB3 | Josh AllenBUF @ NYJ · | @ NYJ | 20.3 | 13–26 | 19.2 | 25.1 | |
| RB1 | Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NE · | vs NE | 19.5 | 12–27 | 19.2 | 26.6 | |
| QB4 | Brock PurdySF @ DAL · | @ DAL | 19.1 | 13–24 | 18.2 | 21.2 | |
| QB5 | Drake MayeNE @ DET · | @ DET | 18.6 | 12–24 | 22.7 | 20.1 | |
| WR2 | Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs PIT · | vs PIT | 18.0 | 10–25 | 26.6 | 20.0 | |
| QB6 | Trevor LawrenceJAX @ TEN · | @ TEN | 17.9 | 12–23 | 20.8 | 18.6 | |
| RB2 | Christian McCaffreySF @ DAL · | @ DAL | 17.8 | 10–25 | 25.8 | 21.1 | |
| RB3 | Bijan RobinsonATL vs KC · | vs KC | 17.7 | 10–24 | 17.2 | 20.0 | |
| QB7 | Dak PrescottDAL vs SF · | vs SF | 17.6 | 12–23 | 20.9 | 18.4 | |
| RB4 | Javonte WilliamsDAL vs SF · | vs SF | 17.6 | 10–24 | 16.9 | 17.7 | |
| QB8 | Patrick MahomesKC @ ATL · Questionable | @ ATL | 17.4 | 12–22 | 16.6 | 18.0 | |
| QB9 | Jayden DanielsWSH @ NYG · | @ NYG | 17.4 | 11–22 | 17.5 | 19.2 | |
| RB5 | Kyren WilliamsLAR @ ARI · | @ ARI | 17.3 | 10–24 | 14.0 | 18.1 | |
| QB10 | Bryce YoungCAR @ NO · | @ NO | 17.1 | 11–22 | 13.4 | 18.8 | |
| WR3 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA @ LV · | @ LV | 16.8 | 9–24 | 22.4 | 25.8 | |
| QB11 | C.J. StroudHOU @ CLE · | @ CLE | 16.7 | 11–21 | 24.3 | 20.8 | |
| QB12 | Jordan LoveGB vs MIN · | vs MIN | 16.5 | 11–21 | 24.2 | 20.3 | |
| QB13 | Deshaun WatsonCLE vs HOU · Questionable | vs HOU | 16.4 | 11–21 | 13.6 | 15.2 | |
| QB14 | Jared GoffDET vs NE · | vs NE | 16.2 | 11–21 | 11.5 | 18.7 | |
| WR4 | Tee HigginsCIN vs PIT · | vs PIT | 16.0 | 8–22 | 28.2 | 20.0 | |
| RB6 | Kenneth Walker IIIKC @ ATL · | @ ATL | 16.0 | 9–22 | 19.5 | 24.6 | |
| QB15 | Matthew StaffordLAR @ ARI · | @ ARI | 15.8 | 10–20 | 12.3 | 15.9 | |
| RB7 | James Cook IIIBUF @ NYJ · | @ NYJ | 15.5 | 9–21 | 19.7 | 19.1 | |
| QB16 | J.J. McCarthyNYG vs WSH · Questionable | vs WSH | 15.5 | 10–20 | 10.6 | 8.0 | |
| TE1 | Trey McBrideARI vs LAR · | vs LAR | 15.4 | 8–22 | 19.9 | 18.1 | |
| WR5 | Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs NE · | vs NE | 15.3 | 8–21 | 17.8 | 19.7 | |
| QB17 | Geno SmithNYJ vs BUF · | vs BUF | 15.3 | 10–20 | 15.6 | 14.5 | |
| RB8 | Chuba HubbardCAR @ NO · | @ NO | 15.1 | 9–21 | 16.2 | 18.3 | |
| QB18 | Aaron RodgersPIT @ CIN · | @ CIN | 15.0 | 10–19 | 11.3 | 14.6 | |
| RB9 | Jaylen WarrenPIT @ CIN · | @ CIN | 14.9 | 9–21 | 15.9 | 17.9 | |
| WR6 | Malik NabersNYG vs WSH · | vs WSH | 14.8 | 8–21 | 18.6 | 16.2 | |
| QB19 | Drew LockSEA @ LV · Questionable | @ LV | 14.6 | 10–19 | 15.6 | 15.6 | |
| WR7 | Chris OlaveNO vs CAR · | vs CAR | 14.6 | 8–20 | 14.2 | 17.7 | |
| RB10 | Jonathan TaylorIND vs MIA · | vs MIA | 14.6 | 9–20 | 13.0 | 18.0 | |
| WR8 | Christian WatsonGB vs MIN · | vs MIN | 14.4 | 8–20 | 20.0 | 19.9 | |
| QB20 | Justin HerbertLAC @ BAL · Questionable | @ BAL | 14.3 | 9–18 | 9.0 | 10.6 | |
| QB21 | Cam WardTEN vs JAX · | vs JAX | 14.3 | 9–18 | 12.3 | 12.1 | |
| QB22 | Kirk CousinsMIN @ GB · | @ GB | 14.3 | 9–18 | 20.4 | 18.9 | |
| QB23 | Michael Penix Jr.ATL vs KC · | vs KC | 14.2 | 9–18 | 10.7 | 13.2 | |
| WR9 | Matthew GoldenGB vs MIN · | vs MIN | 14.1 | 7–20 | 21.1 | 18.0 | |
| RB11 | Tony PollardTEN vs JAX · | vs JAX | 13.7 | 8–19 | 24.3 | 14.6 | |
| RB12 | Chase BrownCIN vs PIT · | vs PIT | 13.7 | 8–19 | 12.8 | 13.2 | |
| QB24 | Fernando MendozaLV vs SEA · | vs SEA | 13.5 | 9–17 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
| QB25 | Carson BeckARI vs LAR · | vs LAR | 13.5 | 9–17 | — | — | |
| TE2 | Brock BowersLV vs SEA · | vs SEA | 13.3 | 7–19 | 21.9 | 21.4 | |
| WR10 | Tetairoa McMillanCAR @ NO · | @ NO | 13.3 | 7–19 | 11.8 | 15.8 | |
| QB26 | Daniel JonesIND vs MIA · | vs MIA | 13.1 | 9–17 | 6.8 | 9.7 |
How much to trust this
Run on every NFL week on file, with each projection using only earlier games, against the simplest alternative: the player's own average so far.
| Season | Order: ours | Order: his average | Miss: ours | Miss: his average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.50 | 0.51 | 4.70 | 4.81 |
| 2024 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 4.86 | 4.98 |
| 2025 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 4.85 | 5.04 |
| 2026 | 0.50 | 0.43 | 5.08 | 5.55 |
Locked before kickoff
Saved before each game and graded after, the fairer test: 276 players over 1 week so far, with the 49 expected to play who didn't counted as scoring nothing. Average miss 4.52, against 4.74 for their own averages; order 0.62 against 0.59. Too few weeks to read much into yet.
A smaller miss than his average every season, by a modest margin, and a better order in all but 2023, when the two were about even. Even so, a projection misses by about 5 points a player, and half of real scores land outside the Range column: one game is noisy, so treat these as a tiebreaker, not a verdict. We haven't compared them with experts' rankings.
The test scores only players who played, since the past games' projections know who was active. We pull top backs and receivers down because the model ran high on them; that correction was fitted on the seasons before 2026, so 2026 is the clean test. Lost fumbles, two-point tries, kickers and defenses aren't projected. For insight and fun, not betting advice.