Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Jaguars favored by 10.5, and the forecast follows it (Jaguars 81%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Jaguars more, at 86%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Jaguars rate higher (1642 to 1296 Elo) and the Titans have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Jaguars
Now 98%
99%
with a win
96%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
Titans
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
How the forecast moved
TEN went from 19% to 19% over 10 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 10, 10:24 PM ESTCarnell Tate back · forecast TEN 17%
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Jaguars 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -10.5
- ML JAX -535 / TEN +400
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -13
- JAX 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- JAX: Elo 86.3%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- JAX -434
- TEN +434 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- JAX 28.5 – 18.0 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1642 | 1296 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +4 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · TEN: Cam Ward (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | — | −5 | Key absences: Carnell Tate |
| Elo ratings | JAX +320 Elo | JAX 86.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 82.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 85.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 81.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3228.6 | Points scored | 18.028th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3215.1 | Points allowed | 24.922nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+13.5 | Margin | −6.927th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.90 | Yards per play | 4.8426th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.41 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7628th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 0–428th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 144931st of 32 |
| 5th of 321642 | Elo rating | 129632nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+2.4 | Offense, adjusted | −2.831st of 32 |
| 4th of 32+2.0 | Defense, adjusted | −2.528th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from each player's share of his team's targets, carries and passes, next to DraftKings lines. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 17,384 graded NFL lines (log loss 0.689 vs our model's 0.721). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −1.9% a bet over 4,421 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor LawrenceJAX | QB · 31 attempts | 242.8 | 263.2 | 233.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 50%* | 48% | |
| Cam WardTEN | QB · 32 attempts | 213.0 | 195.8 | 205.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 50%* | 47% |
* DraftKings lists these lines in ESPN's feed without prices, so each is read as the book's 50/50 point, the chance leans only slightly toward our model, and a parlay can't show what the book would pay for them.
What if…
Pick something that might happen in this game and see how every other line's chance moves if it does.
- Brenton Strange (JAX) over 35.5 receiving yards49%60%
- Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) over 11.5 receiving yards49%60%
- Parker Washington (JAX) over 63.5 receiving yards48%59%
- Brenton Strange (JAX) over 3.5 receptions49%57%
- Parker Washington (JAX) over 4.5 receptions47%55%
- Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) over 2.5 receptions45%53%
- Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) over 84.5 rushing + receiving yards48%55%
- Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) over 68.5 rushing yards47%44%
- Tony Pollard (TEN) over 15.5 carries50%48%
- Jaguars win81%83%
His other lines (6)
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX) over 245.5 passing + rushing yards50%90%
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX) over 19.5 completions50%76%
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX) over 28.5 pass attempts51%71%
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX) over 1.5 passing touchdowns50%65%
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX) over 0.5 interceptions thrown49%47%
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX) over 9.5 rushing yards49%48%
What each chance becomes if it happens, from how players' stats and results moved together in 467 past games, the same numbers behind same-game parlays (tested on games the fit never saw). It says how things are linked, not that any of it will happen.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Jaguars
25 listedBrian Thomas Jr. WR
ActiveThe Jaguars have relayed to inquiring teams that they intend to keep Thomas through Tuesday's trade deadline, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.
Davon Godchaux DT
ActiveThe Jaguars acquired Godchaux from the Saints on Monday in exchange for a 2028 sixth-round pick, though the selection could turn into a 2027 sixth-round pick if "conditions are met," Jonathan Jones of The Athletic of The Athletic reports.
CJ Williams WR
ActiveWesley Williams DE
ActiveFoyesade Oluokun LB
ActiveOluokun recorded seven tackles (six solo), including 1.0 sacks, in Thursday's 33-10 victory over Baltimore.
Tanner Koziol TE
ActiveKoziol finished Thursday's 33-10 win over Baltimore with two catches for 15 yards on two targets.
Nate Boerkircher TE
ActiveBoerkircher hauled in two of three targets for 61 yards in Thursday night's 33-10 win over Baltimore.
Josh Cameron WR
ActiveCameron caught his only target for six yards in Thursday night's 33-10 victory over the Ravens.
Ameer Abdullah RB
ActiveAbdullah carried the ball seven times for 30 yards and returned one kickoff for 24 yards in Thursday night's 33-10 win over the Ravens.
Brenton Strange TE
ActiveStrange caught both of his targets for 22 yards in Thursday night's 33-10 win over the Ravens.
Travis Hunter WR
ActiveHunter caught his only target for minus-1 yard and lost a fumble in Thursday night's 33-10 win over the Ravens.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB
ActiveRodriguez rushed 10 times for 19 yards and a touchdown and brought in both targets for 13 yards in the Jaguars' 33-10 win over the Ravens on Thursday night.
Titans
25 listedCarnell Tate WR
−5 EloQuestionableTeam receiving leader (34 REC, 413 YDS, 1 TD)
questionable
Tony Pollard RB
ActiveThe Titans opted not to move Pollard ahead of Tuesday's trade deadline, despite him drawing interest from teams, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.
James Williams Sr. LB
Injured Reserveir
Tyjae Spears RB
Questionablequestionable
Tommy Townsend P
Questionablequestionable
Jaylon Jones CB
Questionablequestionable
Dorian Mausi LB
Injured ReserveThe Titans activated Mausi (foot) from injured reserve Monday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports.
Nicholas Singleton RB
ActiveTitans head coach Robert Saleh said Monday that Singleton is "getting better," and the rookie running back could be a candidate to see added opportunities in the second half of the season if lead back Tony Pollard is dealt ahead of Tuesday's deadline, Turron Davenport of ESPN.com reports.
Calvin Ridley WR
ActiveTitans head coach Robert Saleh confirmed Monday that Ridley was involved in an "unfortunate" interaction over the weekend at Nashville International Airport that is now in the hands of law enforcement, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Joey Slye PK
ActiveSlye hit both field-goal tries and his two extra-point attempts in Sunday's 43-36 overtime loss to the Bengals.
Elic Ayomanor WR
ActiveAyomanor caught three of five targets for 34 yards in Sunday's 43-36 overtime loss to the Bengals.
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson OT
Active
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  JAX |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
JAX 5–1 TEN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.