Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Mason RudolphPassing19/31, 193 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tyjae SpearsRushing20 CAR, 95 YDS
- Calvin RidleyReceiving5 REC, 84 YDS
Jaguars- Mac JonesPassing15/22, 174 YDS, 2 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing15 CAR, 49 YDS
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving7 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:02Matthew Wright 28 Yd Field Goal13–20
- Q47:05Brian Thomas Jr. 11 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Cam Little Kick)10–20
- Q36:51Nick Vannett 8 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Matthew Wright Kick)10–13
- Q20:00Matthew Wright 39 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q22:02Cam Little 44 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q28:59Parker Washington 2 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Cam Little Kick)0–10
- Q110:46Cam Little 48 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:46Cam Little 48 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 3 JAX · JAX 48% → 56% +8JAX 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q28:59Parker Washington 2 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Cam Little Kick)TEN 0 – 10 JAX · JAX 58% → 77% +19JAX 58% → 77%+19 pts
- Q22:02Cam Little 44 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 13 JAX · JAX 80% → 86% +7JAX 80% → 86%+7 pts
- Q36:51Nick Vannett 8 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Matthew Wright Kick)TEN 10 – 13 JAX · TEN 15% → 39% +23TEN 15% → 39%+23 pts
- Q47:05Brian Thomas Jr. 11 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Cam Little Kick)TEN 10 – 20 JAX · JAX 70% → 97% +26JAX 70% → 97%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Titans 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- TEN -1.5
- ML TEN -120 / JAX +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TEN 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -1
- TEN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- TEN: Elo 46.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEN -107
- JAX +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 20.0 – 18.5 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1293 | 1361 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +20 | −59 | TEN: Mason Rudolph, usually Will Levis · JAX: Mac Jones, usually Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +25 Elo | JAX 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 53.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEN 51.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3218.9 | Points scored | 18.527th of 32 |
| 31st of 3227.8 | Points allowed | 26.429th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−8.9 | Margin | −7.926th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.98 | Yards per play | 5.3018th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9632nd of 32 |
| 25th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 1–529th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–12 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEN 1–2 JAX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.