Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Will LevisPassing18/24, 278 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing24 CAR, 119 YDS, 1 TD
- Calvin RidleyReceiving5 REC, 93 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing20/33, 247 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Joe MixonRushing14 CAR, 22 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving5 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:13C.J. Stroud sacked in end zone by Harold Landry III for a Safety32–27
- Q49:35Chig Okonkwo 70 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)30–27
- Q49:46Ka'imi Fairbairn 54 Yd Field Goal23–27
- Q30:04Jimmie Ward 65 Yd Interception Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)23–24
- Q39:08Nick Folk 51 Yd Field Goal23–17
- Q20:00Nick Folk 56 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q21:47Ka'imi Fairbairn 28 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q26:17Nico Collins 5 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)17–14
- Q211:03Tony Pollard 10 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)17–7
- Q11:57Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 38 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)10–7
- Q111:15Nick Folk 51 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q114:42Cade Stover 19 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:57Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 38 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)TEN 10 – 7 HOU · TEN 19% → 35% +16TEN 19% → 35%+16 pts
- Q211:03Tony Pollard 10 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)TEN 17 – 7 HOU · TEN 37% → 58% +21TEN 37% → 58%+21 pts
- Q26:17Nico Collins 5 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)TEN 17 – 14 HOU · HOU 39% → 61% +22HOU 39% → 61%+22 pts
- Q30:04Jimmie Ward 65 Yd Interception Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)TEN 23 – 24 HOU · HOU 34% → 68% +34HOU 34% → 68%+34 pts
- Q49:35Chig Okonkwo 70 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)TEN 30 – 27 HOU · TEN 18% → 58% +40TEN 18% → 58%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -7.5
- ML TEN +280 / HOU -360
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -9.5
- HOU 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 79.5%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -303
- TEN +303 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 16.5 – 24.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1341 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +7 | TEN: Will Levis · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +236 Elo | HOU 79.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 74.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 78.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 75.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3217.0 | Points scored | 23.514th of 32 |
| 26th of 3226.3 | Points allowed | 21.511th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−9.3 | Margin | +2.013th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.86 | Yards per play | 5.2219th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.81 | Yards allowed per play | 4.925th of 32 |
| 25th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–8 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 1–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 1–5 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 2–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEN 0–2 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.