Houston Texans at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing11/30, 191 YDS
- Joe MixonRushing24 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- Tank DellReceiving6 REC, 126 YDS
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing22/32, 211 YDS, 3 TD
- Breece HallRushing15 CAR, 74 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving7 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:39Ka'imi Fairbairn 29 Yd Field Goal13–21
- Q42:56Davante Adams 37 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Riley Patterson Kick)10–21
- Q412:54Garrett Wilson 26 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Riley Patterson Kick)10–14
- Q34:11Ka'imi Fairbairn 54 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q39:03Garrett Wilson 21 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Riley Patterson Kick)7–7
- Q23:21Joe Mixon 3 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:21Joe Mixon 3 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 7 – 0 NYJ · HOU 46% → 69% +23HOU 46% → 69%+23 pts
- Q39:03Garrett Wilson 21 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Riley Patterson Kick)HOU 7 – 7 NYJ · NYJ 27% → 53% +26NYJ 27% → 53%+26 pts
- Q34:11Ka'imi Fairbairn 54 Yd Field GoalHOU 10 – 7 NYJ · HOU 47% → 60% +13HOU 47% → 60%+13 pts
- Q412:54Garrett Wilson 26 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Riley Patterson Kick)HOU 10 – 14 NYJ · NYJ 37% → 73% +36NYJ 37% → 73%+36 pts
- Q42:56Davante Adams 37 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Riley Patterson Kick)HOU 10 – 21 NYJ · NYJ 88% → >99% +12NYJ 88% → >99%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -2.5
- ML HOU +125 / NYJ -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 41%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- NYJ 34%
- Ratings vs. market
- −22.9 pts
- NYJ: Elo 34.2%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -124
- HOU +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 20.5 – 23.0 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +11 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · NYJ: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +114 Elo | HOU 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 55.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3223.5 | Points scored | 18.825th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.4 | Points allowed | 21.311th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+1.1 | Margin | −2.520th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.37 | Yards per play | 5.1023rd of 32 |
| 4th of 324.79 | Yards allowed per play | 4.692nd of 32 |
| 15th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–221st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–6 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–6 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 NYJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.