Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing10/21, 86 YDS
- Joe MixonRushing25 CAR, 115 YDS, 2 TD
- Dalton SchultzReceiving1 REC, 28 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing24/33, 220 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing12 CAR, 76 YDS
- Romeo DoubsReceiving8 REC, 94 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Brandon McManus 45 Yd Field Goal22–24
- Q41:44Ka'imi Fairbairn 35 Yd Field Goal22–21
- Q37:25Josh Jacobs 8 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)19–21
- Q21:13Joe Mixon 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)19–14
- Q24:30Ka'imi Fairbairn 52 Yd Field Goal13–14
- Q28:51Dontayvion Wicks 30 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)10–14
- Q211:52Joe Mixon 2 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)10–7
- Q213:16Tucker Kraft 14 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)3–7
- Q111:48Ka'imi Fairbairn 23 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:51Dontayvion Wicks 30 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)HOU 10 – 14 GB · GB 51% → 71% +21GB 51% → 71%+21 pts
- Q21:13Joe Mixon 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)HOU 19 – 14 GB · HOU 38% → 58% +21HOU 38% → 58%+21 pts
- Q37:25Josh Jacobs 8 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)HOU 19 – 21 GB · GB 37% → 65% +28GB 37% → 65%+28 pts
- Q41:44Ka'imi Fairbairn 35 Yd Field GoalHOU 22 – 21 GB · HOU 21% → 62% +41HOU 21% → 62%+41 pts
- Q40:00Brandon McManus 45 Yd Field GoalHOU 22 – 24 GB · GB 0% → 100% +100GB 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- GB -3.5
- ML HOU +155 / GB -185
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -3
- GB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- GB: Elo 60.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- GB -165
- HOU +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 22.0 – 25.5 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1610 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +10 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +76 Elo | GB 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 59.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 62.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 27.07th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.5 | Points allowed | 20.29th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+1.3 | Margin | +6.84th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.67 | Yards per play | 6.234th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.76 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4216th of 32 |
| 9th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | — | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.