2026-27 · Regular season
NHL predictions
33 games in the next 4 days · model updated 12:48 AM ET
Games
The filled side of each bar is the pick. Tap a game for the full breakdown.
Today6 games
Lightning
11-4-2
Sabres
8-6-3
Rangers
10-8-1
Flames
8-9-1
Flyers
5-10-5
Oilers
13-3-3
Mammoth
10-7-1
Golden Knights
12-5-2
Predators
9-4-5
Ducks
10-7-1
Penguins
6-10-2
Sharks
8-11-1
Tomorrow11 games
Hurricanes
14-3-2
Kraken
9-6-1
Canadiens
11-3-4
Bruins
13-4-1
Wild
13-3-4
Maple Leafs
8-10-2
Avalanche
11-6-2
Senators
11-6-2
Capitals
10-6-0
Devils
13-6-0
Lightning
11-4-2
Blue Jackets
7-9-0
Red Wings
7-9-3
Panthers
10-7-2
Sabres
8-6-3
Blackhawks
4-13-1
Jets
8-8-3
Stars
10-5-2
Blues
8-8-2
Mammoth
10-7-1
Islanders
7-6-4
Kings
5-8-2
Friday, November 132 games
Saturday, November 1414 games
Kraken
9-6-1
Hurricanes
14-3-2
Jets
8-8-3
Blackhawks
4-13-1
Wild
13-3-4
Bruins
13-4-1
Oilers
13-3-3
Maple Leafs
8-10-2
Avalanche
11-6-2
Canadiens
11-3-4
Red Wings
7-9-3
Lightning
11-4-2
Senators
11-6-2
Penguins
6-10-2
Devils
13-6-0
Capitals
10-6-0
Flyers
5-10-5
Blue Jackets
7-9-0
Panthers
10-7-2
Blues
8-8-2
Sabres
8-6-3
Stars
10-5-2
Sharks
8-11-1
Mammoth
10-7-1
Islanders
7-6-4
Ducks
10-7-1
Flames
8-9-1
Kings
5-8-2
Power rankings
Elo from results: 1500 is average, and 100 points is about a 64% favorite on a neutral field. Market is the same scale, learned from closing lines.
| # | Team | Elo | Season | Market | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hurricanes14-3-2 | 1599 | +17 | 1566 #1 | |
| 2 |  Avalanche11-6-2 | 1568 | +2 | 1561 #2 | |
| 3 |  Lightning11-4-2 | 1553 | +8 | 1544 #3 | |
| 4 |  Wild13-3-4 | 1552 | +25 | 1524 #8 | |
| 5 |  Golden Knights12-5-2 | 1539 | +10 | 1535 #5 | |
| 6 |  Stars10-5-2 | 1538 | +2 | 1523 #10 | |
| 7 |  Oilers13-3-3 | 1537 | +25 | 1526 #7 | |
| 8 |  Canadiens11-3-4 | 1535 | +7 | 1504 #15 | |
| 9 |  Bruins13-4-1 | 1535 | +31 | 1504 #16 | |
| 10 |  Sabres8-6-3 | 1526 | −15 | 1514 #11 | |
| 11 |  Capitals10-6-0 | 1526 | +5 | 1510 #12 | |
| 12 |  Senators11-6-2 | 1525 | +4 | 1524 #9 | |
| 13 |  Devils13-6-0 | 1515 | +25 | 1540 #4 | |
| 14 |  Panthers10-7-2 | 1511 | +3 | 1505 #14 | |
| 15 |  Mammoth10-7-1 | 1507 | +2 | 1535 #6 | |
| 16 |  Blues8-8-2 | 1499 | −4 | 1494 #19 | |
| 17 |  Predators9-4-5 | 1493 | +13 | 1481 #24 | |
| 18 |  Blue Jackets7-9-0 | 1489 | −12 | 1500 #18 | |
| 19 |  Penguins6-10-2 | 1488 | −13 | 1501 #17 | |
| 20 |  Rangers10-8-1 | 1486 | +2 | 1491 #21 | |
| 21 |  Ducks10-7-1 | 1484 | +7 | 1471 #27 | |
| 22 |  Jets8-8-3 | 1483 | −7 | 1480 #25 | |
| 23 |  Islanders7-6-4 | 1475 | −7 | 1487 #23 | |
| 24 |  Red Wings7-9-3 | 1474 | −13 | 1507 #13 | |
| 25 |  Flyers5-10-5 | 1474 | −24 | 1478 #26 | |
| 26 |  Kraken9-6-1 | 1469 | +9 | 1461 #28 | |
| 27 |  Maple Leafs8-10-2 | 1468 | −3 | 1493 #20 | |
| 28 |  Kings5-9-2 | 1464 | −15 | 1489 #22 | |
| 29 |  Flames8-9-1 | 1456 | −10 | 1458 #29 | |
| 30 |  Sharks8-11-1 | 1437 | −12 | 1442 #30 | |
| 31 |  Blackhawks4-13-1 | 1403 | −23 | 1441 #31 | |
| 32 |  Canucks3-16-1 | 1390 | −35 | 1415 #32 |
Biggest games ahead
The coming games with the most playoff chance riding on them, from the season simulation.
Ratings vs. the line
Biggest gaps between our Elo ratings and the market. The market has been the more accurate of the two.
+8UTA @ VGK
Wed, Nov 11 · VGK: ratings 61%, market 53%
+6NYR @ CGY
Wed, Nov 11 · CGY: ratings 50%, market 44%
+5TB @ BUF
Wed, Nov 11 · BUF: ratings 51%, market 46%
+3NSH @ ANA
Wed, Nov 11 · ANA: ratings 60%, market 57%
+2PHI @ EDM
Wed, Nov 11 · PHI: ratings 37%, market 36%
+2PIT @ SJ
Wed, Nov 11 · SJ: ratings 46%, market 45%
Recent results
Latest graded picks.
NSH 3 @ LA 0
Final
LA 55%
Miss
DET 2 @ STL 3
Final
STL 57%
Hit
FLA 4 @ CBJ 1
Final
FLA 51%
Hit
NJ 2 @ WPG 4
Final
NJ 57%
Miss
WSH 3 @ OTT 2
Final/OT
OTT 54%
Miss
MIN 2 @ MTL 1
Final/OT
MIN 53%
Hit
COL 6 @ TOR 3
Final
COL 58%
Hit
NYI 2 @ SJ 3
Final/SO
NYI 55%
Miss
PHI 3 @ VAN 1
Final
PHI 55%
Hit
NYR 1 @ EDM 3
Final
EDM 58%
Hit
PIT 2 @ ANA 5
Final
ANA 52%
Hit
PHI 3 @ CGY 4
Final/OT
PHI 52%
MissTeam stats
This season, regular season. Sort by any column. Opp. Elo is how strong the teams each has played are. Home and road leave out neutral-site games. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| # | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CARHurricanes | +1.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 6–2 | 8–3 | 7–3 | 1478 |
| 2 | BOSBruins | +1.5 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 8–1 | 5–4 | 7–3 | 1496 |
| 3 | EDMOilers | +1.2 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 6–5 | 7–1 | 6–4 | 1476 |
| 4 | MINWild | +1.0 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 5–2 | 8–5 | 7–3 | 1499 |
| 5 | COLAvalanche | +1.0 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 7–3 | 4–5 | 6–4 | 1488 |
| 6 | NJDevils | +0.7 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 8–2 | 5–4 | 8–2 | 1499 |
| 7 | VGKGolden Knights | +0.7 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 6–3 | 6–4 | 5–5 | 1488 |
| 8 | TBLightning | +0.6 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 8–0 | 3–6 | 6–4 | 1492 |
| 9 | DALStars | +0.5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 6–4 | 4–3 | 7–3 | 1498 |
| 10 | MTLCanadiens | +0.4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 5–5 | 6–2 | 7–3 | 1498 |
| 11 | NSHPredators | +0.2 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 6–5 | 3–4 | 6–4 | 1520 |
| 12 | FLAPanthers | +0.2 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 4–2 | 6–7 | 5–5 | 1485 |
| 13 | WSHCapitals | +0.2 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 7–4 | 3–2 | 7–3 | 1521 |
| 14 | ANADucks | +0.2 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3–5 | 7–3 | 6–4 | 1488 |
| 15 | OTTSenators | +0.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 6–3 | 5–5 | 5–5 | 1491 |
| 16 | NYRRangers | +0.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 8–2 | 2–7 | 4–6 | 1499 |
| 17 | SEAKraken | 0.0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 5–3 | 4–4 | 5–5 | 1495 |
| 18 | UTAHMammoth | 0.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4–2 | 6–6 | 4–6 | 1503 |
| 19 | STLBlues | −0.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 5–3 | 3–7 | 5–5 | 1508 |
| 20 | TORMaple Leafs | −0.1 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4–8 | 4–4 | 4–6 | 1502 |
| 21 | NYIIslanders | −0.2 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 4–6 | 1496 |
| 22 | PITPenguins | −0.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4–4 | 2–8 | 3–7 | 1507 |
| 23 | BUFSabres | −0.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 4–5 | 4–4 | 5–5 | 1499 |
| 24 | DETRed Wings | −0.4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 4–6 | 1492 |
| 25 | CBJBlue Jackets | −0.6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 6–4 | 1–5 | 4–6 | 1521 |
| 26 | LAKings | −0.6 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2–6 | 3–5 | 5–5 | 1500 |
| 27 | WPGJets | −0.6 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 5–5 | 3–6 | 4–6 | 1518 |
| 28 | CGYFlames | −0.9 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 6–4 | 2–6 | 6–4 | 1497 |
| 29 | SJSharks | −1.0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4–5 | 4–7 | 3–7 | 1502 |
| 30 | PHIFlyers | −1.0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3–7 | 2–8 | 4–6 | 1513 |
| 31 | VANCanucks | −1.7 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 1–8 | 2–9 | 1–9 | 1510 |
| 32 | CHIBlackhawks | −2.1 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4–5 | 0–9 | 1–9 | 1523 |
Season projections
10,000 simulations of the 1,053 regular-season games left, then the playoffs. Re-run every 15 minutes; last at 12:44 AM ET.
Eastern Conference
| Team | Projected | Division | Playoffs | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes14-3-2 | 53-23-847–59 W | 72% | 98% | 16% |
| Lightning11-4-2 | 49-26-943–55 W | 39% | 89% | 9% |
| Devils13-6-0 | 49-28-743–55 W | 19% | 86% | 6% |
| Bruins13-4-1 | 46-30-840–52 W | 18% | 75% | 3% |
| Canadiens11-3-4 | 44-29-1139–50 W | 16% | 73% | 3% |
| Senators11-6-2 | 45-30-939–51 W | 13% | 70% | 4% |
| Capitals10-6-0 | 45-32-739–51 W | 6% | 63% | 3% |
| Sabres8-6-3 | 43-31-1037–49 W | 7% | 52% | 3% |
| Panthers10-7-2 | 43-32-937–49 W | 6% | 48% | 2% |
| Rangers10-8-1 | 41-34-935–47 W | 1% | 34% | 1% |
| Islanders7-6-4 | 39-33-1233–45 W | 1% | 26% | 1% |
| Blue Jackets7-9-0 | 41-35-835–47 W | 1% | 27% | 1% |
| Red Wings7-9-3 | 39-35-1033–45 W | 1% | 20% | 1% |
| Penguins6-10-2 | 39-36-933–45 W | <1% | 19% | 1% |
| Maple Leafs8-10-2 | 38-37-932–44 W | 1% | 14% | <1% |
| Flyers5-10-5 | 35-36-1329–41 W | <1% | 8% | <1% |
Western Conference
| Team | Projected | Division | Playoffs | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wild13-3-4 | 48-26-1042–54 W | 35% | 95% | 6% |
| Avalanche11-6-2 | 49-27-844–55 W | 34% | 94% | 13% |
| Oilers13-3-3 | 48-26-1042–54 W | 48% | 96% | 6% |
| Golden Knights12-5-2 | 48-28-843–54 W | 43% | 95% | 8% |
| Stars10-5-2 | 46-29-940–52 W | 13% | 82% | 4% |
| Mammoth10-7-1 | 46-30-841–52 W | 13% | 81% | 5% |
| Predators8-4-5 | 40-31-1334–46 W | 2% | 47% | 1% |
| Blues8-8-2 | 41-34-935–47 W | 2% | 40% | 1% |
| Ducks10-7-1 | 41-34-935–47 W | 4% | 46% | 1% |
| Jets8-8-3 | 39-34-1133–45 W | 1% | 29% | 1% |
| Kraken9-6-1 | 40-35-934–46 W | 2% | 37% | <1% |
| Kings5-8-2 | 39-35-1033–45 W | 2% | 33% | 1% |
| Flames8-9-1 | 37-38-931–43 W | 1% | 17% | <1% |
| Sharks8-11-1 | 35-40-929–41 W | <1% | 8% | <1% |
| Blackhawks4-13-1 | 31-43-1025–37 W | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| Canucks3-16-1 | 27-47-1021–33 W | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Every game uses the pre-line forecast: team ratings and home field, plus rest, travel and any announced starters or injuries for games in the next few weeks. Each simulation also shifts every team’s rating by a random amount (standard deviation 30 Elo) because ratings are estimates and teams change. Ties in the standings are broken by coin flip, not the league’s tiebreaker rules.
Standings go by points: two for a win, one for an overtime or shootout loss. The top three in each division and two wild cards per conference make the playoffs. Series are best of seven, with home ice to the team with more points. 22% of simulated games go past regulation, the share in the seasons on file.
Records are simulation averages, rounded. The range is the middle 80% of simulated win totals; when past seasons were re-run from their quarter, half and three-quarter marks, final win totals landed inside it 80% of the time.
Track record
Every NHL game since 2024-25, graded against the forecast the app would have shown beforehand. 58.7% correct overall.
Forecast correct
58.7%
1,811 of 3,084 · Brier 0.237
Before the line
57.2%
Every game as if no line were posted · Brier 0.238
Elo ratings alone
56.5%
Brier 0.241 · same games
Betting market alone
58.7%
Closing line on file for 100% of games
Always picking home
54.4%
The no-skill baseline
Calibration
When the forecast says 65%, does that team win about 65% of the time?
Show as table
| Confidence | Games | Stated | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50%–55% | 926 | 52.4% | 51.2% |
| 55%–60% | 1,035 | 57.4% | 56.4% |
| 60%–65% | 599 | 62.4% | 62.4% |
| 65%–70% | 306 | 67.0% | 67.6% |
| 70%–75% | 172 | 72.0% | 76.2% |
| 75%–80% | 44 | 76.9% | 88.6% |
| 80%–85% | 2 | 80.6% | 100.0% |
By confidence
| Confidence | Games | Won |
|---|---|---|
Strong 70%+ win probability | 218 | 78.9% |
Solid 62–70% | 668 | 64.5% |
Lean 55–62% | 1,272 | 57.7% |
Toss-up Under 55% | 926 | 51.2% |
By season
| Season | Games | Correct | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 1,398 | 61.2% | 0.232 |
| 2025-26 | 1,394 | 55.5% | 0.244 |
| 2026-27 | 292 | 62.3% | 0.226 |