Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
- The pick
- VGK · Solid
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 3–4
- Fair odds
- -199
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Golden Knights at 67%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Golden Knights rate higher (1539 to 1493 Elo) and the Golden Knights have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Predators
Now 47%
52%
with a win
44%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
Golden Knights
Now 95%
96%
with a win
94%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
VGK went from 68% to 67% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Golden Knights 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 61%
- Fair odds
- VGK -199
- NSH +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NSH 2.7 – 3.6 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +2 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +80 Elo | VGK 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 66.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.76th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 52.5%10th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%7th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 32 |
| 4th of 321520 | Opponent Elo | 148827th of 32 |
| 17th of 321493 | Elo rating | 15395th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch MarnerVGK | 21 min | 1.2 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jack EichelVGK | 20 min | 1.2 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mark StoneVGK | 19 min | 1.0 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Filip ForsbergNSH | 20 min | 0.9 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Roman JosiNSH | 25 min | 0.7 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Steven StamkosNSH | 19 min | 0.7 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan O'ReillyNSH | 20 min | 0.7 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Shea TheodoreVGK | 23 min | 0.7 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tomas HertlVGK | 14 min | 0.7 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ivan BarbashevVGK | 14 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Trevor ConnellyVGK | 14 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| William KarlssonVGK | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brett HowdenVGK | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Victor OlofssonVGK | 13 min | 0.4 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Rasmus AnderssonVGK | 20 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Braeden BowmanVGK | 13 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mavrik BourqueNSH | 17 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brayden McNabbVGK | 22 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Shane WrightNSH | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jack DruryNSH | 17 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ross ColtonNSH | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alexander KerfootNSH | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Adam WilsbyNSH | 21 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brady SkjeiNSH | 20 min | 0.3 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nils HoglanderNSH | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Adam EdstromNSH | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nic DowdVGK | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick PerbixNSH | 19 min | 0.2 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Reid SchaeferNSH | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jayden StrubleNSH | 15 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jeremy LauzonVGK | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan CoghlanVGK | 13 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jonas RondbjergVGK | 11 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ilya LyubushkinNSH | 15 min | 0.1 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Daemon HuntNSH | 14 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nicolas HagueNSH | 13 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Predators
1 listedJonathan Marchessault RW
Outout
Golden Knights
2 listedNoah Hanifin D
Outout
Parker Wotherspoon D
Injured Reserveir
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–5 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 12–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 5–5 VGK in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.