Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Brett HowdenGoals1
- Rasmus AnderssonAssists2
- Brett HowdenPoints2
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:24Brett Howden Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Andersson (3), Mark Stone (5)5–2
- P34:49Trevor Connelly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (1), Dylan Coghlan (1)4–2
- P217:44William Karlsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (5), Rasmus Andersson (2)3–2
- P28:45Adam Edstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (1), Ryan O'Reilly (3)2–2
- P112:48Jack Eichel Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brayden McNabb (5)2–1
- P16:46Tomas Hertl Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Raphael Lavoie (2), Brett Howden (3)1–1
- P13:55Ryan O'Reilly Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Filip Forsberg (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:46Tomas Hertl Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Raphael Lavoie (2), Brett Howden (3)VGK 1 – 1 NSH · VGK 40% → 55% +15VGK 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P112:48Jack Eichel Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brayden McNabb (5)VGK 2 – 1 NSH · VGK 55% → 70% +15VGK 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P28:45Adam Edstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (1), Ryan O'Reilly (3)VGK 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 27% → 46% +19NSH 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P217:44William Karlsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (5), Rasmus Andersson (2)VGK 3 – 2 NSH · VGK 53% → 75% +22VGK 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P34:49Trevor Connelly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (1), Dylan Coghlan (1)VGK 4 – 2 NSH · VGK 79% → 94% +15VGK 79% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 55%
- ML VGK -135 / NSH +114
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 48.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -123
- NSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.4 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −2 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +9 Elo | NSH 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 8th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.813th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+1.0 | Margin | 0.020th of 32 |
| 4th of 3256.2% | Shot share | 42.1%29th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 91.3%7th of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
| 31st of 321469 | Opponent Elo | 15195th of 32 |
| 4th of 321536 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–5 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–5 NSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.