Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Nils HoglanderGoals2
- Filip ForsbergAssists2
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- Auston MatthewsAssists3
- Auston MatthewsPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT4:46Auston Matthews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (3)4–5
- P38:54Jack Roslovic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (3), William Nylander (2)4–4
- P214:31Gavin McKenna Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (2), Jack Roslovic (2)4–3
- P213:30Steven Stamkos Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (2), Brady Skjei (1)4–2
- P26:58William Nylander Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (1), Kirill Marchenko (2)3–2
- P24:56John Tavares Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Gavin McKenna (1), Anthony Stolarz (1)3–1
- P23:03Nils Hoglander Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Filip Forsberg (3), Mavrik Bourque (1)3–0
- P19:08Nils Hoglander Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Adam Wilsby (1), Filip Forsberg (2)2–0
- P17:13Steven Stamkos Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (1), Roman Josi (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:58William Nylander Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (1), Kirill Marchenko (2)NSH 3 – 2 TOR · TOR 21% → 38% +17TOR 21% → 38%+17 pts
- P213:30Steven Stamkos Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (2), Brady Skjei (1)NSH 4 – 2 TOR · NSH 65% → 82% +18NSH 65% → 82%+18 pts
- P214:31Gavin McKenna Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (2), Jack Roslovic (2)NSH 4 – 3 TOR · TOR 17% → 35% +18TOR 17% → 35%+18 pts
- P38:54Jack Roslovic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (3), William Nylander (2)NSH 4 – 4 TOR · TOR 23% → 54% +31TOR 23% → 54%+31 pts
- OT4:46Auston Matthews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (3)NSH 4 – 5 TOR · TOR 51% → >99% +49TOR 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML NSH +140 / TOR -166
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.7%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -150
- NSH +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.5 – 3.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +8 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +33 Elo | TOR 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.5% | Shot share | 44.8%32nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.7%15th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3217–23 | Road vs home | 18–2328th of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15041st of 32 |
| 25th of 321478 | Elo rating | 146927th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NSH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–36 | 34–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 7–26 |
| Underdog | 39–20 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–3 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.