San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals2
- Igor ChernyshovAssists1
- Macklin CelebriniPoints2
Predators- Luke EvangelistaGoals2
- Ryan UfkoAssists2
- Luke EvangelistaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:50Luke Evangelista Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Ryan Ufko (7), Roman Josi (42)3–2
- P318:15Macklin Celebrini Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (25), Alexander Wennberg (37)3–1
- P315:39Luke Evangelista Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (10), Ryan Ufko (6)2–1
- P33:04Macklin Celebrini Goal (43) Snap Shot, assists: Igor Chernyshov (10), Will Smith (34)2–0
- P29:53Igor Chernyshov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (36), Michael Misa (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:53Igor Chernyshov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (36), Michael Misa (12)SJ 1 – 0 NSH · SJ 44% → 64% +20SJ 44% → 64%+20 pts
- P33:04Macklin Celebrini Goal (43) Snap Shot, assists: Igor Chernyshov (10), Will Smith (34)SJ 2 – 0 NSH · SJ 72% → 90% +18SJ 72% → 90%+18 pts
- P315:39Luke Evangelista Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (10), Ryan Ufko (6)SJ 2 – 1 NSH · NSH <1% → 10% +9NSH <1% → 10%+9 pts
- P318:15Macklin Celebrini Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (25), Alexander Wennberg (37)SJ 3 – 1 NSH · SJ 98% → >99% +2SJ 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P318:50Luke Evangelista Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Ryan Ufko (7), Roman Josi (42)SJ 3 – 2 NSH · NSH <1% → <1% +0NSH <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 58%
- ML SJ +130 / NSH -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- NSH: Elo 61.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -140
- SJ +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.5 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +6 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +85 Elo | NSH 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 59.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 89.7%14th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3216–22 | Road vs home | 20–1817th of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 30th of 321425 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–32 | 45–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 44–24 | 38–20 |
| Overs–unders | 40–39 | 36–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–8 NSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.