San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Mario FerraroGoals1
- Mario FerraroAssists1
- Mario FerraroPoints2
Predators- Michael McCarronGoals2
- Ryan McDonaghAssists3
- Roman JosiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:16Tommy Novak Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (13), Mark Jankowski (6)2–8
- P314:43Filip Forsberg Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (42), Ryan McDonagh (25)2–7
- P314:13Mark Jankowski Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Tyson Barrie (12), Anthony Beauvillier (11)2–6
- P310:35Michael McCarron Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (12)2–5
- P217:50Luke Evangelista Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Roman Josi (52), Filip Forsberg (38)2–4
- P215:26Michael McCarron Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (11), Roman Josi (51)2–3
- P29:37Jason Zucker Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (19), Ryan McDonagh (24)2–2
- P25:46Mario Ferraro Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Bordeleau (2), Justin Bailey (8)2–1
- P117:18Mikael Granlund Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Klim Kostin (4), Mario Ferraro (16)1–1
- P111:18Roman Josi Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (23), Filip Forsberg (37)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:18Roman Josi Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (23), Filip Forsberg (37)SJ 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 58% → 73% +15NSH 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P117:18Mikael Granlund Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Klim Kostin (4), Mario Ferraro (16)SJ 1 – 1 NSH · SJ 27% → 42% +16SJ 27% → 42%+16 pts
- P25:46Mario Ferraro Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Bordeleau (2), Justin Bailey (8)SJ 2 – 1 NSH · SJ 43% → 62% +19SJ 43% → 62%+19 pts
- P29:37Jason Zucker Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (19), Ryan McDonagh (24)SJ 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 36% → 56% +20NSH 36% → 56%+20 pts
- P215:26Michael McCarron Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (11), Roman Josi (51)SJ 2 – 3 NSH · NSH 56% → 76% +21NSH 56% → 76%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 73%
- Fair odds
- NSH -144
- SJ +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +6 | SJ: Magnus Chrona: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +177 Elo | NSH 73.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.2 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.8 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 31st of 3142.1% | Shot share | 50.6%15th of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 31st of 311–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 30th of 316–28 | Road vs home | 17–1516th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–2 NSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.