Nashville Predators at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Kiefer SherwoodGoals1
- Mark JankowskiAssists1
- Kiefer SherwoodPoints1
Blue Jackets- Alexandre TexierGoals1
- Ivan ProvorovAssists1
- Alexandre TexierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:16Luke Evangelista Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (2), Tommy Novak (23)2–1
- P21:50Alexandre Texier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (23)1–1
- P112:19Kiefer Sherwood Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:19Kiefer Sherwood Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: noneNSH 1 – 0 CBJ · NSH 47% → 63% +16NSH 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P21:50Alexandre Texier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (23)NSH 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 35% → 53% +18CBJ 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P34:16Luke Evangelista Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (2), Tommy Novak (23)NSH 2 – 1 CBJ · NSH 48% → 75% +27NSH 48% → 75%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 47%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -115
- NSH +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −2 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +18 Elo | NSH 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.627th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.3% | Shot share | 47.5%23rd of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 89.8%25th of 31 |
| 1st of 319–1 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3118–11 | Road vs home | 12–1927th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.