Edmonton Oilers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Corey PerryPoints1
Blue Jackets- Alexander NylanderGoals1
- Erik GudbransonAssists1
- Alexander NylanderPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:40Jack Roslovic Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alexandre Texier (14), Erik Gudbranson (15)2–4
- P312:08Corey Perry Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Evander Kane (16), Darnell Nurse (15)2–3
- P21:11Zach Hyman Goal (43) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (77), Leon Draisaitl (49)1–3
- P115:21Dmitri Voronkov Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: none0–3
- P114:54Alex Nylander Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (14)0–2
- P16:20Mathieu Olivier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (8), Justin Danforth (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:20Mathieu Olivier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (8), Justin Danforth (11)EDM 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 52% → 67% +15CBJ 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P114:54Alex Nylander Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (14)EDM 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 68% → 81% +13CBJ 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P115:21Dmitri Voronkov Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: noneEDM 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 82% → 91% +9CBJ 82% → 91%+9 pts
- P21:11Zach Hyman Goal (43) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (77), Leon Draisaitl (49)EDM 1 – 3 CBJ · EDM 8% → 17% +9EDM 8% → 17%+9 pts
- P312:08Corey Perry Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Evander Kane (16), Darnell Nurse (15)EDM 2 – 3 CBJ · EDM 2% → 15% +13EDM 2% → 15%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 42%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -110
- EDM +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −7 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +59 Elo | EDM 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.3% | Shot share | 47.4%23rd of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%25th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3117–12 | Road vs home | 11–1927th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–0 CBJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.