Columbus Blue Jackets at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Kent JohnsonAssists1
- Dmitri VoronkovPoints1
Oilers- Warren FoegeleGoals1
- Warren FoegeleAssists1
- Evander KanePoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:36Dylan Holloway Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (4), Brett Kulak (3)1–4
- P35:48Connor McDavid Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (29), Cody Ceci (13)1–3
- P34:53Evander Kane Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (16), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (30)1–2
- P115:25Dmitri Voronkov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (9)1–1
- P17:30Warren Foegele Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Evander Kane (14), Darnell Nurse (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:30Warren Foegele Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Evander Kane (14), Darnell Nurse (11)CBJ 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 57% → 72% +14EDM 57% → 72%+14 pts
- P115:25Dmitri Voronkov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (9)CBJ 1 – 1 EDM · CBJ 28% → 43% +16CBJ 28% → 43%+16 pts
- P34:53Evander Kane Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (16), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (30)CBJ 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 54% → 80% +26EDM 54% → 80%+26 pts
- P35:48Connor McDavid Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (29), Cody Ceci (13)CBJ 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 80% → 94% +14EDM 80% → 94%+14 pts
- P315:36Dylan Holloway Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (4), Brett Kulak (3)CBJ 1 – 4 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 69%
- Fair odds
- EDM -138
- CBJ +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +14 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +137 Elo | EDM 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.64th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.4% | Shot share | 55.1%4th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 31 |
| 29th of 315–14 | Road vs home | 12–78th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.