Player props
Every prop, one board
Every player prop posted for the next day or so, next to our projection. The over chance follows the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate one in every league; lines where our model disagrees by 10+ points are tagged with how such lines have done. Not betting advice.
Lines posted
9
1 game · DraftKings
Model disagrees
0
by 10+ points against the price
Past disagreements
+6.9%
a bet · 2,488 graded lines, 57% won
Logged before games
70–66
−8.5% a bet
Every logged pick, graded: download the NHL picks (CSV).
| Player | Stat | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam FoxNYR · NYR @ CGY · | Points | 0.9▲ 0.4 above the line | 1.0 | 0.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 60% | 57% | |
| Matt CoronatoCGY · NYR @ CGY · | Points | 0.6▲ 0.1 above the line | 0.2 | 0.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 51% | 44% | |
| Joel FarabeeCGY · NYR @ CGY · | Points | 0.6▲ 0.1 above the line | 0.6 | 0.5 | 7/10 games over this line | 50% | 43% | |
| Matvei GridinCGY · NYR @ CGY · | Points | 0.6▲ 0.1 above the line | 0.2 | 0.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 47% | 43% | |
| Morgan FrostCGY · NYR @ CGY · | Points | 0.5at the line | 0.6 | 0.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 45% | 38% | |
| Mikael BacklundCGY · NYR @ CGY · | Points | 0.4▼ 0.1 below the line | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 37% | 34% | |
| Zayne ParekhCGY · NYR @ CGY · | Points | 0.4▼ 0.1 below the line | 0.8 | 0.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 38% | 30% | |
| Ryan StromeCGY · NYR @ CGY · | Points | 0.4▼ 0.1 below the line | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 33% | 30% | |
| Simon NemecCGY · NYR @ CGY · | Points | 0.3▼ 0.2 below the line | 0.4 | 0.5 | 3/10 games over this line | 32% | 28% |
About L10. It counts the games he went over this line in his last ten, the number prop apps lead with, and it describes the past. On 4,114 past NHL lines where a player had cleared it in 8 or more of his last 10, 55.3% went over next time; the book had them at 56.2%. Books move the line to recent form, so the over chance is the number to go by.
Do these chances hold up?
Every graded NHL main line since the tuning season, at the chance this board would have shown for the likelier side: when it said 60%, did that side come in about 60% of the time? 159,528 lines, pushes left out.
Show as table
| Confidence | Lines | Stated | Came in |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50%–55% | 24,438 | 52.5% | 52.8% |
| 55%–60% | 24,082 | 57.5% | 57.5% |
| 60%–65% | 20,594 | 62.4% | 62.7% |
| 65%–70% | 16,025 | 67.4% | 67.4% |
| 70%–75% | 14,385 | 72.5% | 72.4% |
| 75%–80% | 12,936 | 77.4% | 77.4% |
| 80%–85% | 11,121 | 82.5% | 83.2% |
| 85%–90% | 14,627 | 87.7% | 88.4% |
| 90%–95% | 19,048 | 92.4% | 94.0% |
| 95%–100% | 2,272 | 95.7% | 96.4% |
Latest logged picks
The model's NHL disagreements, logged before each game at the line and price on offer then, and graded after. A player who doesn't play voids the pick, as the books settle it.
- WonBen Kindel under 0.5 pointsDraftKings -110 · model 68% · Nov 8Had 0
- LostLaurent Brossoit under 25.5 savesDraftKings -115 · model 68% · Nov 8Had 31
- LostTristan Luneau under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings -130 · model 70% · Nov 8Had 2
- LostRickard Rakell under 2.5 shots on goalDraftKings -105 · model 65% · Nov 8Had 3
- WonEgor Chinakhov under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings +130 · model 57% · Nov 8Had 1
- WonBen Kindel under 2.5 shots on goalDraftKings -175 · model 76% · Nov 8Had 1
- WonBen Kindel under 0.5 assistsDraftKings -215 · model 81% · Nov 8Had 0
- WonTommy Novak under 0.5 pointsDraftKings +105 · model 60% · Nov 8Had 0
- LostTommy Novak under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings +115 · model 58% · Nov 8Had 3
- LostCutter Gauthier under 3.5 shots on goalDraftKings +115 · model 57% · Nov 8Had 6
- WonSidney Crosby under 2.5 shots on goalDraftKings -155 · model 71% · Nov 8Had 2
- WonRoger McQueen under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings -160 · model 72% · Nov 8Had 1
- WonTravis Sanheim under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings -120 · model 67% · Nov 8Had 0
- WonPorter Martone under 0.5 pointsDraftKings -125 · model 68% · Nov 8Had 0
- LostJamie Drysdale under 0.5 pointsDraftKings -150 · model 71% · Nov 8Had 1
- LostJamie Drysdale under 0.5 assistsDraftKings -200 · model 78% · Nov 8Had 1
- LostAnthony Stolarz over 28.5 savesDraftKings +100 · model 60% · Nov 8Had 25
- LostJake Guentzel over 2.5 shots on goalDraftKings +125 · model 56% · Nov 8Had 1
- WonVasily Podkolzin under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings +130 · model 65% · Nov 7Had 1
- LostZach Hyman under 0.5 assistsDraftKings -200 · model 80% · Nov 7Had 1
- WonAlex Formenton under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings -165 · model 75% · Nov 7Had 0
- WonVasily Podkolzin under 0.5 pointsDraftKings -115 · model 66% · Nov 7Had 0
- LostJonathan Lekkerimaki under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings +105 · model 60% · Nov 3Had 2
- LostJake DeBrusk under 2.5 shots on goalDraftKings -135 · model 68% · Nov 3Had 3
- WonRoss Colton under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings +120 · model 59% · Nov 3Had 1
- WonRyan O'Reilly under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings +100 · model 62% · Nov 3Had 0
- LostAdam Edstrom under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings -145 · model 71% · Nov 3Had 2
- LostSteven Stamkos under 2.5 shots on goalDraftKings -175 · model 75% · Nov 3Had 3
- LostLogan Stankoven under 0.5 assistsDraftKings -210 · model 78% · Nov 3Had 1
- LostLeon Draisaitl under 2.5 shots on goalDraftKings +110 · model 59% · Nov 3Had 4