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Player props

Every prop, one board

Every player prop posted for the next day or so, next to our projection. The over chance follows the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate one in every league; lines where our model disagrees by 10+ points are tagged with how such lines have done. Not betting advice.

Updated

Lines posted

271

6 games · DraftKings

Model disagrees

13

by 10+ points against the price

Past disagreements

+6.9%

a bet · 2,488 graded lines, 57% won

Logged before games

70–66

−8.5% a bet · 17 pending

Every logged pick, graded: download the NHL picks (CSV).

PlayerStatProjLineL10OverParlay
Nikita KucherovTB · TB @ BUF · Shots on goal3.2▲ 0.7 above the line2.56/10 games over this line58%
Tage ThompsonBUF · TB @ BUF · Shots on goal2.9▼ 0.6 below the line3.55/10 games over this line40%
Jake GuentzelTB · TB @ BUF · Shots on goal2.8▲ 0.3 above the line2.54/10 games over this line49%
Brandon HagelTB · TB @ BUF · Shots on goal2.6▲ 0.1 above the line2.57/10 games over this line54%
Rasmus DahlinBUF · TB @ BUF · Shots on goal2.3▼ 0.2 below the line2.56/10 games over this line44%
Jack QuinnBUF · TB @ BUF · Shots on goal2.1▼ 0.4 below the line2.56/10 games over this line42%
Zach BensonBUF · TB @ BUF · Shots on goal2.1▼ 0.4 below the line2.58/10 games over this line37%
John CarlsonTB · TB @ BUF · Shots on goal1.8▲ 0.3 above the line1.55/10 games over this line55%
Josh DoanBUF · TB @ BUF · Shots on goal1.6▲ 0.1 above the line1.56/10 games over this line50%
Nikita KucherovTB · TB @ BUF · Points1.6▲ 0.1 above the line1.55/10 games over this line44%
Olen ZellwegerBUF · TB @ BUF · Shots on goal1.5at the line1.56/10 games over this line45%
Noah OstlundBUF · TB @ BUF · Shots on goal1.5at the line1.56/10 games over this line46%
Anthony CirelliTB · TB @ BUF · Shots on goal1.5at the line1.55/10 games over this line45%
Charle-Edouard D'AstousTB · TB @ BUF · Shots on goal1.3▼ 0.2 below the line1.55/10 games over this line44%
Jake GuentzelTB · TB @ BUF · Points1.1▲ 0.6 above the line0.57/10 games over this line64%
Nikita KucherovTB · TB @ BUF · Assists1.1▲ 0.6 above the line0.56/10 games over this line62%
Brandon HagelTB · TB @ BUF · Points0.9▲ 0.4 above the line0.56/10 games over this line61%
Tage ThompsonBUF · TB @ BUF · Points0.9▲ 0.4 above the line0.57/10 games over this line60%
Rasmus DahlinBUF · TB @ BUF · Points0.8▲ 0.3 above the line0.56/10 games over this line57%
Zach BensonBUF · TB @ BUF · Points0.7▲ 0.2 above the line0.58/10 games over this line53%
Jack QuinnBUF · TB @ BUF · Points0.7▲ 0.2 above the line0.57/10 games over this line51%
Jake GuentzelTB · TB @ BUF · Assists0.6▲ 0.1 above the line0.54/10 games over this line43%
Rasmus DahlinBUF · TB @ BUF · Assists0.6▲ 0.1 above the line0.54/10 games over this line47%
Anthony CirelliTB · TB @ BUF · Points0.6▲ 0.1 above the line0.55/10 games over this line43%
John CarlsonTB · TB @ BUF · Points0.6▲ 0.1 above the line0.54/10 games over this line45%
Noah OstlundBUF · TB @ BUF · Points0.5at the line0.55/10 games over this line44%
Charle-Edouard D'AstousTB · TB @ BUF · Points0.5at the line0.57/10 games over this line42%
Zach BensonBUF · TB @ BUF · Assists0.5at the line0.57/10 games over this line41%
Brandon HagelTB · TB @ BUF · Assists0.5at the line0.54/10 games over this line41%
Owen PowerBUF · TB @ BUF · Points0.5at the line0.54/10 games over this line36%
Tage ThompsonBUF · TB @ BUF · Assists0.5at the line0.55/10 games over this line37%
Josh DoanBUF · TB @ BUF · Points0.5at the line0.53/10 games over this line36%
John CarlsonTB · TB @ BUF · Assists0.4▼ 0.1 below the line0.52/10 games over this line37%
Josh NorrisBUF · TB @ BUF · Points0.4▼ 0.1 below the line0.52/10 games over this line36%
Charle-Edouard D'AstousTB · TB @ BUF · Assists0.4▼ 0.1 below the line0.57/10 games over this line35%
Owen PowerBUF · TB @ BUF · Assists0.4▼ 0.1 below the line0.53/10 games over this line31%
Jack QuinnBUF · TB @ BUF · Assists0.4▼ 0.1 below the line0.54/10 games over this line35%
Anthony CirelliTB · TB @ BUF · Assists0.3▼ 0.2 below the line0.53/10 games over this line28%
Noah OstlundBUF · TB @ BUF · Assists0.3▼ 0.2 below the line0.53/10 games over this line31%
Josh DoanBUF · TB @ BUF · Assists0.2▼ 0.3 below the line0.51/10 games over this line21%
Josh NorrisBUF · TB @ BUF · Assists0.2▼ 0.3 below the line0.50/10 games over this line22%
Pavel DorofeyevNYR · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal2.7▲ 0.2 above the line2.55/10 games over this line53%
Mika ZibanejadNYR · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal2.5at the line2.52/10 games over this line42%
Alexis LafreniereNYR · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal2.2▲ 0.7 above the line1.56/10 games over this line61%
Matt CoronatoCGY · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal2.1▼ 0.4 below the line2.53/10 games over this line41%
J.T. MillerNYR · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal2.1▲ 0.6 above the line1.57/10 games over this line60%
Mikael BacklundCGY · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal2.1▼ 0.4 below the line2.52/10 games over this line39%
Joel FarabeeCGY · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal2.1▼ 0.4 below the line2.56/10 games over this line37%
Will CuylleNYR · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal2.0▲ 0.5 above the line1.54/10 games over this line59%
Matvei GridinCGY · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal1.9▼ 0.6 below the line2.53/10 games over this line36%
Tye KartyeNYR · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal1.8▲ 0.3 above the line1.59/10 games over this line54%
Adam FoxNYR · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal1.8▲ 0.3 above the line1.55/10 games over this line56%
Gabe PerreaultNYR · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal1.7▲ 0.2 above the line1.56/10 games over this line55%
Zayne ParekhCGY · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal1.5at the line1.55/10 games over this line50%
Morgan FrostCGY · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal1.5at the line1.53/10 games over this line48%
Yegor SharangovichCGY · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal1.5at the line1.52/10 games over this line50%
Simon NemecCGY · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal1.4▼ 0.1 below the line1.55/10 games over this line45%
Aydar SunievCGY · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal1.2▼ 0.3 below the line1.54/10 games over this line42%
Ryan StromeCGY · NYR @ CGY · Shots on goal1.2▼ 0.3 below the line1.55/10 games over this line41%
Adam FoxNYR · NYR @ CGY · Points0.9▲ 0.4 above the line0.57/10 games over this line60%
Mika ZibanejadNYR · NYR @ CGY · Points0.8▲ 0.3 above the line0.56/10 games over this line57%
J.T. MillerNYR · NYR @ CGY · Points0.8▲ 0.3 above the line0.55/10 games over this line56%
Adam FoxNYR · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.7▲ 0.2 above the line0.56/10 games over this line55%
Alexis LafreniereNYR · NYR @ CGY · Points0.7▲ 0.2 above the line0.55/10 games over this line52%
Matt CoronatoCGY · NYR @ CGY · Points0.6▲ 0.1 above the line0.55/10 games over this line51%
Joel FarabeeCGY · NYR @ CGY · Points0.6▲ 0.1 above the line0.57/10 games over this line50%
Matvei GridinCGY · NYR @ CGY · Points0.6▲ 0.1 above the line0.54/10 games over this line47%
Pavel DorofeyevNYR · NYR @ CGY · Points0.6▲ 0.1 above the line0.57/10 games over this line48%
Tye KartyeNYR · NYR @ CGY · Points0.6▲ 0.1 above the line0.56/10 games over this line42%
J.T. MillerNYR · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.5at the line0.53/10 games over this line43%
Mika ZibanejadNYR · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.5at the line0.56/10 games over this line42%
Morgan FrostCGY · NYR @ CGY · Points0.5at the line0.55/10 games over this line45%
Gabe PerreaultNYR · NYR @ CGY · Points0.5at the line0.53/10 games over this line42%
Mikael BacklundCGY · NYR @ CGY · Points0.4▼ 0.1 below the line0.53/10 games over this line38%
Will CuylleNYR · NYR @ CGY · Points0.4▼ 0.1 below the line0.52/10 games over this line37%
Matt CoronatoCGY · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.4▼ 0.1 below the line0.54/10 games over this line37%
Matvei GridinCGY · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.4▼ 0.1 below the line0.54/10 games over this line33%
Oliver BjorkstrandNYR · NYR @ CGY · Points0.4▼ 0.1 below the line0.56/10 games over this line35%
Zayne ParekhCGY · NYR @ CGY · Points0.4▼ 0.1 below the line0.55/10 games over this line37%
Alexis LafreniereNYR · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.4▼ 0.1 below the line0.53/10 games over this line35%
Ryan StromeCGY · NYR @ CGY · Points0.4▼ 0.1 below the line0.53/10 games over this line34%
Simon NemecCGY · NYR @ CGY · Points0.3▼ 0.2 below the line0.53/10 games over this line33%
Joel FarabeeCGY · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.3▼ 0.2 below the line0.53/10 games over this line33%
Tye KartyeNYR · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.3▼ 0.2 below the line0.53/10 games over this line28%
Morgan FrostCGY · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.3▼ 0.2 below the line0.55/10 games over this line32%
Mikael BacklundCGY · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.3▼ 0.2 below the line0.52/10 games over this line25%
Ryan StromeCGY · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.3▼ 0.2 below the line0.51/10 games over this line25%
Simon NemecCGY · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.2▼ 0.3 below the line0.53/10 games over this line26%
Zayne ParekhCGY · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.2▼ 0.3 below the line0.53/10 games over this line28%
Pavel DorofeyevNYR · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.2▼ 0.3 below the line0.53/10 games over this line26%
Gabe PerreaultNYR · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.2▼ 0.3 below the line0.50/10 games over this line26%
Oliver BjorkstrandNYR · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.2▼ 0.3 below the line0.53/10 games over this line23%
Will CuylleNYR · NYR @ CGY · Assists0.2▼ 0.3 below the line0.52/10 games over this line22%
Connor McDavidEDM · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal2.9▼ 0.6 below the line3.52/10 games over this line38%
Leon DraisaitlEDM · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal2.7▼ 0.8 below the line3.56/10 games over this line38%model: under
Evan BouchardEDM · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal2.1▼ 0.4 below the line2.54/10 games over this line43%
Zach HymanEDM · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal2.0▼ 0.5 below the line2.52/10 games over this line38%
Connor McDavidEDM · PHI @ EDM · Points1.8▲ 0.3 above the line1.56/10 games over this line53%
Owen TippettPHI · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal1.7▼ 0.8 below the line2.55/10 games over this line34%model: under
Matvei MichkovPHI · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal1.6▲ 0.1 above the line1.56/10 games over this line54%
Leon DraisaitlEDM · PHI @ EDM · Points1.6▲ 0.1 above the line1.57/10 games over this line49%
Porter MartonePHI · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal1.5at the line1.56/10 games over this line51%
Kasperi KapanenEDM · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal1.5at the line1.56/10 games over this line45%
Travis KonecnyPHI · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal1.4▼ 0.1 below the line1.55/10 games over this line48%
Trevor ZegrasPHI · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal1.4▼ 0.1 below the line1.57/10 games over this line50%model: under
Tyson FoersterPHI · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal1.4▼ 0.1 below the line1.56/10 games over this line50%model: under
Mattias EkholmEDM · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal1.4▼ 0.1 below the line1.53/10 games over this line45%
Ryan Nugent-HopkinsEDM · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal1.3▼ 1.2 below the line2.5up from 1.53/10 games over this line28%model: under
Vasily PodkolzinEDM · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal1.3▼ 0.2 below the line1.54/10 games over this line47%model: under
Connor McDavidEDM · PHI @ EDM · Assists1.3▼ 0.2 below the line1.55/10 games over this line36%
Evan BouchardEDM · PHI @ EDM · Points1.1▼ 0.4 below the line1.54/10 games over this line32%
Jamie DrysdalePHI · PHI @ EDM · Shots on goal1.1▼ 0.4 below the line1.54/10 games over this line38%
Leon DraisaitlEDM · PHI @ EDM · Assists0.9▲ 0.4 above the line0.56/10 games over this line62%
Evan BouchardEDM · PHI @ EDM · Assists0.8▲ 0.3 above the line0.58/10 games over this line57%
Zach HymanEDM · PHI @ EDM · Points0.6▲ 0.1 above the line0.53/10 games over this line46%
Ryan Nugent-HopkinsEDM · PHI @ EDM · Points0.6▲ 0.1 above the line0.56/10 games over this line51%
Travis KonecnyPHI · PHI @ EDM · Points0.6▲ 0.1 above the line0.55/10 games over this line45%
Matvei MichkovPHI · PHI @ EDM · Points0.6▲ 0.1 above the line0.57/10 games over this line44%
Trevor ZegrasPHI · PHI @ EDM · Points0.6▲ 0.1 above the line0.56/10 games over this line47%
Mattias EkholmEDM · PHI @ EDM · Points0.5at the line0.57/10 games over this line39%

About L10. It counts the games he went over this line in his last ten, the number prop apps lead with, and it describes the past. On 4,114 past NHL lines where a player had cleared it in 8 or more of his last 10, 55.3% went over next time; the book had them at 56.2%. Books move the line to recent form, so the over chance is the number to go by.

Do these chances hold up?

Every graded NHL main line since the tuning season, at the chance this board would have shown for the likelier side: when it said 60%, did that side come in about 60% of the time? 159,528 lines, pushes left out.

30%50%70%90%50%60%70%80%90%100%Chance shown for the likelier sideperfect calibration
Show as table
ConfidenceLinesStatedCame in
50%–55%24,43852.5%52.8%
55%–60%24,08257.5%57.5%
60%–65%20,59462.4%62.7%
65%–70%16,02567.4%67.4%
70%–75%14,38572.5%72.4%
75%–80%12,93677.4%77.4%
80%–85%11,12182.5%83.2%
85%–90%14,62787.7%88.4%
90%–95%19,04892.4%94.0%
95%–100%2,27295.7%96.4%

Latest logged picks

The model's NHL disagreements, logged before each game at the line and price on offer then, and graded after. A player who doesn't play voids the pick, as the books settle it.

  • WonBen Kindel under 0.5 pointsDraftKings -110 · model 68% · Nov 8Had 0
  • LostLaurent Brossoit under 25.5 savesDraftKings -115 · model 68% · Nov 8Had 31
  • LostTristan Luneau under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings -130 · model 70% · Nov 8Had 2
  • LostRickard Rakell under 2.5 shots on goalDraftKings -105 · model 65% · Nov 8Had 3
  • WonEgor Chinakhov under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings +130 · model 57% · Nov 8Had 1
  • WonBen Kindel under 2.5 shots on goalDraftKings -175 · model 76% · Nov 8Had 1
  • WonBen Kindel under 0.5 assistsDraftKings -215 · model 81% · Nov 8Had 0
  • WonTommy Novak under 0.5 pointsDraftKings +105 · model 60% · Nov 8Had 0
  • LostTommy Novak under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings +115 · model 58% · Nov 8Had 3
  • LostCutter Gauthier under 3.5 shots on goalDraftKings +115 · model 57% · Nov 8Had 6
  • WonSidney Crosby under 2.5 shots on goalDraftKings -155 · model 71% · Nov 8Had 2
  • WonRoger McQueen under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings -160 · model 72% · Nov 8Had 1
  • WonTravis Sanheim under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings -120 · model 67% · Nov 8Had 0
  • WonPorter Martone under 0.5 pointsDraftKings -125 · model 68% · Nov 8Had 0
  • LostJamie Drysdale under 0.5 pointsDraftKings -150 · model 71% · Nov 8Had 1
  • LostJamie Drysdale under 0.5 assistsDraftKings -200 · model 78% · Nov 8Had 1
  • LostAnthony Stolarz over 28.5 savesDraftKings +100 · model 60% · Nov 8Had 25
  • LostJake Guentzel over 2.5 shots on goalDraftKings +125 · model 56% · Nov 8Had 1
  • WonVasily Podkolzin under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings +130 · model 65% · Nov 7Had 1
  • LostZach Hyman under 0.5 assistsDraftKings -200 · model 80% · Nov 7Had 1
  • WonAlex Formenton under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings -165 · model 75% · Nov 7Had 0
  • WonVasily Podkolzin under 0.5 pointsDraftKings -115 · model 66% · Nov 7Had 0
  • LostJonathan Lekkerimaki under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings +105 · model 60% · Nov 3Had 2
  • LostJake DeBrusk under 2.5 shots on goalDraftKings -135 · model 68% · Nov 3Had 3
  • WonRoss Colton under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings +120 · model 59% · Nov 3Had 1
  • WonRyan O'Reilly under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings +100 · model 62% · Nov 3Had 0
  • LostAdam Edstrom under 1.5 shots on goalDraftKings -145 · model 71% · Nov 3Had 2
  • LostSteven Stamkos under 2.5 shots on goalDraftKings -175 · model 75% · Nov 3Had 3
  • LostLogan Stankoven under 0.5 assistsDraftKings -210 · model 78% · Nov 3Had 1
  • LostLeon Draisaitl under 2.5 shots on goalDraftKings +110 · model 59% · Nov 3Had 4