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2026 · Regular season

NFL predictions

14 games in the next 8 days · model updated 12:48 AM ET

Updated

Games

The filled side of each bar is the pick. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

Sunday, November 1512 games

NFL Munich Game

Patriots

5-4

42%

Lions

6-2

58%
Pick DETLeanLine DET -2.5
CBS

Chiefs

6-2

62%

Falcons

3-6

38%
Pick KCSolidLine KC -3.5
Fox

Texans

3-5

66%

Browns

5-4

34%
Pick HOUSolidLine HOU -4.5
Fox

Vikings

6-2

40%

Packers

6-3

60%
Pick GBLeanLine GB -3.5
Fox

Jaguars

6-2

81%

Titans

1-7

19%
Pick JAXStrongLine JAX -10.5
CBS

Dolphins

1-7

36%

Colts

2-7

64%
Pick INDSolidLine IND -3.5
Fox

Panthers

3-5

45%

Saints

3-5

55%
Pick NOToss-upLine NO -2.5
CBS

Bills

7-1

78%

Jets

2-7

22%
Pick BUFStrongLine BUF -8.5
CBS

Seahawks

5-4

72%

Raiders

4-5

28%
Pick SEAStrongLine SEA -6.5
CBS

Rams

5-4

78%

Cardinals

3-6

22%
Pick LARStrongLine LAR -9.5
Fox

49ers

7-1

65%

Cowboys

4-5

35%
Pick SFSolidLine SF -3.5
NBC

Steelers

6-2

39%

Bengals

6-2

61%
Pick CINLeanLine CIN -3.5

Power rankings

Elo from results: 1500 is average, and 100 points is about a 64% favorite on a neutral field. Market is the same scale, learned from closing lines.

#TeamEloSeasonMarketTrend
1Bills7-11718+1151643 #1
2Bears7-21671+1371598 #5
3Broncos7-21656+441580 #8
4Seahawks5-41649−381641 #2
5Jaguars6-21642+661625 #3
649ers7-11634+781578 #10
7Vikings6-21611+221525 #15
8Rams5-41601−41612 #4
9Lions6-21598+551571 #11
10Packers6-31575+551508 #16
11Bengals6-21574+1041568 #12
12Steelers6-21573+721482 #19
13Chiefs6-21563+801584 #6
14Patriots5-41555−421545 #13
15Texans3-51524−851579 #9
16Ravens4-51516−391581 #7
17Buccaneers3-61511+541483 #18
18Giants5-2-11492+711446 #22
19Falcons3-61443−191506 #17
20Browns5-41436+31394 #27
21Saints3-51434−291448 #21
22Cowboys4-51415−131528 #14
23Panthers3-51402−241464 #20
24Commanders2-5-11395−571406 #25
25Eagles2-71387−1561440 #24
26Cardinals3-61375−131388 #29
27Raiders4-51374+681397 #26
28Dolphins1-71372−961360 #31
29Colts2-71362−1091391 #28
30Chargers0-81342−1851441 #23
31Jets2-71305−591370 #30
32Titans1-71296−551321 #32

Biggest games ahead

The coming games with the most playoff chance riding on them, from the season simulation.

Ratings vs. the line

Biggest gaps between our Elo ratings and the market. The market has been the more accurate of the two.

Recent results

Latest graded picks.

BUF 23 @ MIN 6

Final

BUF 60%

Hit

TB 24 @ CHI 27

Final

CHI 70%

Hit

ARI 3 @ SEA 17

Final

SEA 79%

Hit

LV 17 @ SF 38

Final

SF 77%

Hit

GB 45 @ NE 27

Final

NE 63%

Miss

HOU 44 @ LAC 22

Final

HOU 66%

Hit

DEN 26 @ CAR 21

Final

DEN 58%

Hit

LAR 20 @ WSH 13

Final

LAR 67%

Hit

NYG 19 @ PHI 11

Final

NYG 59%

Hit

CLE 22 @ NO 23

Final/OT

NO 60%

Hit

DET 19 @ MIA 9

Final

DET 71%

Hit

NYJ 12 @ KC 35

Final

KC 81%

Hit

Team stats

This season, regular season. Sort by any column. Opp. Elo is how strong the teams each has played are. Home and road leave out neutral-site games. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.

#Team
1JAX+13.528.615.13–02–11501
2SF+9.929.419.55–01–11483
3BUF+8.632.023.43–14–01515
4CIN+8.130.021.92–13–11485
5KC+7.425.317.94–02–21464
6CHI+6.326.820.44–13–11493
7PIT+4.522.518.04–01–21469
8SEA+4.422.418.04–21–21507
9DET+4.127.823.64–02–21474
10MIN+3.818.314.53–13–11530
11LAR+3.723.820.12–23–11486
12GB+2.824.021.23–13–21501
13TB+2.722.419.81–42–21522
14HOU+2.126.124.00–42–11480
15DEN+1.322.020.74–03–21530
16NYG+1.322.821.53–12–1–11428
17DAL+1.127.326.21–23–21460
18NE+0.423.423.03–12–31542
19CAR−2.524.927.41–32–21534
20LV−3.326.429.81–33–21503
21WSH−3.821.525.32–1–10–31491
22NO−3.923.127.01–32–11505
23CLE−3.917.921.83–02–41472
24ATL−3.920.924.81–32–21543
25NYJ−4.620.224.81–31–41493
26BAL−5.221.026.21–32–21480
27TEN−6.918.024.90–41–31449
28IND−7.220.427.71–30–41504
29PHI−8.116.424.61–41–21479
30ARI−8.619.828.30–33–31560
31MIA−9.315.825.00–41–31527
32LAC−12.315.127.40–40–41558

Season projections

10,000 simulations of the 136 regular-season games left, then the playoffs. Re-run every 15 minutes; last at 12:44 AM ET.

American Football Conference

TeamProjectedPlayoffsTitle
Bills14-312–15 W>99%21%
Broncos13-411–14 W99%10%
Jaguars12-511–14 W98%9%
Bengals12-510–14 W94%4%
Chiefs11-69–13 W87%3%
Steelers11-69–13 W86%3%
Patriots9-88–11 W53%1%
Browns9-87–10 W31%<1%
Texans8-97–10 W28%1%
Ravens8-96–10 W19%<1%
Raiders7-105–8 W3%<1%
Colts5-124–7 W<1%<1%
Jets4-133–6 W<1%<1%
Dolphins3-142–5 W<1%<1%
Titans3-142–5 W<1%<1%
Chargers3-141–5 W<1%<1%

National Football Conference

TeamProjectedPlayoffsTitle
49ers13-411–15 W97%11%
Bears12-510–14 W91%11%
Vikings12-510–13 W86%6%
Lions11-69–13 W77%5%
Seahawks10-78–12 W58%6%
Packers10-78–12 W49%2%
Rams10-78–12 W40%3%
Giants9-7-17–11 W78%1%
Cowboys8-96–9 W19%<1%
Buccaneers7-105–9 W37%1%
Saints7-105–9 W25%<1%
Falcons7-105–9 W20%<1%
Panthers6-115–8 W18%<1%
Cardinals6-114–8 W<1%<1%
Commanders6-10-14–8 W5%<1%
Eagles5-123–7 W1%<1%

Every game uses the pre-line forecast: team ratings and home field, plus rest, travel and any announced starters or injuries for games in the next few weeks. Each simulation also shifts every team’s rating by a random amount (standard deviation 80 Elo) because ratings are estimates and teams change. Ties in the standings are broken by coin flip, not the league’s tiebreaker rules.

Four division winners (seeded 1–4) and three wild cards per conference make the playoffs, and the top seed gets a bye. Playoff games are single games at the higher seed; the Super Bowl is neutral. Simulated games never end in a tie.

Records are simulation averages, rounded. The range is the middle 80% of simulated win totals; when past seasons were re-run from their quarter, half and three-quarter marks, final win totals landed inside it 83% of the time.

Track record

Every NFL game since 2024, graded against the forecast the app would have shown beforehand. 68.8% correct overall.

Forecast correct

68.8%

484 of 704 · Brier 0.207

Before the line

67.2%

Every game as if no line were posted · Brier 0.210

Elo ratings alone

67.3%

Brier 0.210 · same games

Betting market alone

67.7%

Closing line on file for 96% of games

Always picking home

53.3%

The no-skill baseline

Calibration

When the forecast says 65%, does that team win about 65% of the time?

30%50%70%90%50%60%70%80%90%100%Model confidence in its pickperfect calibration
Show as table
ConfidenceGamesStatedWon
50%–55%9552.6%54.7%
55%–60%14357.8%62.9%
60%–65%11962.5%63.9%
65%–70%10567.2%71.4%
70%–75%9872.4%78.6%
75%–80%7577.1%69.3%
80%–85%3581.6%85.7%
85%–90%3087.4%93.3%
90%–95%490.9%100.0%

By confidence

ConfidenceGamesWon

Strong

70%+ win probability

242
78.9%

Solid

62–70%

178
71.3%

Lean

55–62%

189
60.3%

Toss-up

Under 55%

95
54.7%

By season

SeasonGamesCorrectBrier
202428571.6%0.199
202528466.5%0.212
202613567.4%0.214