Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIN went from 39% to 40% over 13 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sat, Nov 7, 9:50 PM ESTKyler Murray out · forecast MIN 40%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing21/31, 234 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing31 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- Khalil ShakirReceiving4 REC, 58 YDS
Vikings- Carson WentzPassing8/25, 81 YDS, 2 INT
- Jordan MasonRushing6 CAR, 35 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving3 REC, 58 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:40Tyler Bass 52 Yd Field Goal23–6
- Q46:17James Cook III 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)20–6
- Q36:03Tyler Bass 25 Yd Field Goal13–6
- Q20:05Will Reichard 53 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q20:44Keleki Latu 25 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)10–3
- Q24:02Will Reichard 43 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q11:57Tyler Bass 39 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:57Tyler Bass 39 Yd Field GoalBUF 3 – 0 MIN · BUF 59% → 67% +8BUF 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q24:02Will Reichard 43 Yd Field GoalBUF 3 – 3 MIN · MIN 33% → 42% +9MIN 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q20:44Keleki Latu 25 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 10 – 3 MIN · BUF 57% → 79% +21BUF 57% → 79%+21 pts
- Q20:05Will Reichard 53 Yd Field GoalBUF 10 – 6 MIN · MIN 21% → 29% +8MIN 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q36:03Tyler Bass 25 Yd Field GoalBUF 13 – 6 MIN · BUF 72% → 82% +10BUF 72% → 82%+10 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bills 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -3
- ML BUF -170 / MIN +142
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -2.5
- BUF 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 58.5%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- BUF -151
- MIN +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 23.3 – 20.3 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1689 | 1641 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −47 | BUF: Josh Allen · MIN: Carson Wentz, Kyler Murray out (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +59 Elo | BUF 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 61.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 60.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3233.3 | Points scored | 20.026th of 32 |
| 24th of 3225.9 | Points allowed | 13.31st of 32 |
| 4th of 32+7.4 | Margin | +6.76th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.33 | Yards per play | 4.7428th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.36 | Yards allowed per play | 4.662nd of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 14th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 32 |
| 1st of 321689 | Elo rating | 16416th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 1–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 1–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.