Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing20/34, 226 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Omarion HamptonRushing15 CAR, 56 YDS
- Tre' HarrisReceiving6 REC, 76 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing16/26, 204 YDS, 2 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing24 CAR, 154 YDS, 1 TD
- DJ MooreReceiving6 REC, 67 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Cameron Dicker 33 Yd Field Goal16–24
- Q43:13James Cook III 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)13–24
- Q47:35Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)13–17
- Q36:12Cameron Dicker 21 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q20:16Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)10–10
- Q26:02Tyler Bass 28 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q10:34Cameron Dicker 31 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q110:33Keaton Mitchell 1 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:33Keaton Mitchell 1 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 7 – 0 BUF · LAC 26% → 43% +17LAC 26% → 43%+17 pts
- Q20:16Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)LAC 10 – 10 BUF · BUF 44% → 68% +24BUF 44% → 68%+24 pts
- Q36:12Cameron Dicker 21 Yd Field GoalLAC 13 – 10 BUF · LAC 34% → 47% +12LAC 34% → 47%+12 pts
- Q47:35Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)LAC 13 – 17 BUF · BUF 39% → 83% +44BUF 39% → 83%+44 pts
- Q43:13James Cook III 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)LAC 13 – 24 BUF · BUF 89% → >99% +11BUF 89% → >99%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -7
- ML LAC +275 / BUF -345
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -10
- BUF 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 80.7%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- BUF -299
- LAC +299 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 21.8 – 28.8 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1648 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | — | LAC: Justin Herbert · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +249 Elo | BUF 80.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 78.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 74.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.6 | Points scored | 28.34th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 21.512th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+1.6 | Margin | +6.85th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.18 | Yards per play | 5.915th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.02 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2515th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 7th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 7–24th of 32 |
| 27th of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 148726th of 32 |
| 24th of 321426 | Elo rating | 16482nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  LAC |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–9 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–11 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 0–1 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.