Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing28/35, 273 YDS, 1 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing15 CAR, 46 YDS
- Khalil ShakirReceiving12 REC, 82 YDS
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing18/30, 207 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing10 CAR, 67 YDS
- Parker WashingtonReceiving7 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:04Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)27–24
- Q44:03Travis Etienne Jr. 14 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)20–24
- Q48:56Dalton Kincaid 15 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)20–17
- Q412:55Parker Washington 6 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)13–17
- Q35:47Cam Little 43 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q38:12Matt Prater 47 Yd Field Goal13–7
- Q25:37Josh Allen 2 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)10–7
- Q214:14Brian Thomas Jr. 3 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)3–7
- Q12:54Matt Prater 50 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:37Josh Allen 2 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 10 – 7 JAX · BUF 35% → 58% +22BUF 35% → 58%+22 pts
- Q412:55Parker Washington 6 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)BUF 13 – 17 JAX · JAX 35% → 72% +36JAX 35% → 72%+36 pts
- Q48:56Dalton Kincaid 15 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 20 – 17 JAX · BUF 25% → 68% +43BUF 25% → 68%+43 pts
- Q44:03Travis Etienne Jr. 14 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)BUF 20 – 24 JAX · JAX 24% → 84% +60JAX 24% → 84%+60 pts
- Q41:04Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 27 – 24 JAX · BUF 3% → 92% +89BUF 3% → 92%+89 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jaguars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -1.5
- ML BUF +102 / JAX -122
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -1
- JAX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- JAX: Elo 54.1%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- JAX -112
- BUF +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 25.0 – 26.5 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1650 | 1633 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +10 | BUF: Josh Allen · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +29 Elo | JAX 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 54.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 52.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3228.3 | Points scored | 27.96th of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.5 | Points allowed | 19.88th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+6.8 | Margin | +8.14th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.91 | Yards per play | 5.2518th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.25 | Yards allowed per play | 4.988th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 7th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 7–12nd of 32 |
| 28th of 321476 | Opponent Elo | 148026th of 32 |
| 5th of 321650 | Elo rating | 16337th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 12–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 7–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–1 JAX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.