New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Brady CookPassing22/33, 176 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Isaiah DavisRushing9 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- Adonai MitchellReceiving6 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing20/32, 330 YDS, 5 TD
- Trevor LawrenceRushing5 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Receiving3 REC, 73 YDS, 3 TD
Scoring summary
- Q413:40Travis Etienne Jr. 45 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)20–48
- Q414:08Isaiah Davis 24 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)20–41
- Q31:43Cam Little 22 Yd Field Goal13–41
- Q37:01Travis Etienne Jr. 8 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)13–38
- Q310:47Nick Folk 51 Yd Field Goal13–31
- Q20:21Travis Etienne Jr. 20 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)10–31
- Q21:33Cam Little 33 Yd Field Goal10–24
- Q25:03Nick Folk 41 Yd Field Goal10–21
- Q214:14Bhayshul Tuten 16 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)7–21
- Q11:47Adonai Mitchell 9 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Nick Folk Kick)7–14
- Q16:24Trevor Lawrence 15 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)0–14
- Q110:18Brian Thomas Jr. 4 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:18Brian Thomas Jr. 4 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)NYJ 0 – 7 JAX · JAX 86% → 94% +8JAX 86% → 94%+8 pts
- Q16:24Trevor Lawrence 15 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)NYJ 0 – 14 JAX · JAX 94% → 98% +4JAX 94% → 98%+4 pts
- Q11:47Adonai Mitchell 9 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Nick Folk Kick)NYJ 7 – 14 JAX · NYJ 2% → 7% +4NYJ 2% → 7%+4 pts
- Q214:14Bhayshul Tuten 16 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)NYJ 7 – 21 JAX · JAX 93% → 98% +5JAX 93% → 98%+5 pts
- Q21:33Cam Little 33 Yd Field GoalNYJ 10 – 24 JAX · JAX 96% → 98% +2JAX 96% → 98%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jaguars 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -13.5
- ML NYJ +650 / JAX -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -14
- JAX 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- JAX: Elo 88.5%, market 87.2%
- Fair odds
- JAX -688
- NYJ +688 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 13.5 – 27.0 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1337 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −95 | +7 | NYJ: Brady Cook, usually Aaron Rodgers · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +354 Elo | JAX 88.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 84.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 87.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 87.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3219.7 | Points scored | 25.29th of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.8 | Points allowed | 20.911th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−7.2 | Margin | +4.311th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.64 | Yards per play | 5.0723rd of 32 |
| 17th of 325.30 | Yards allowed per play | 5.089th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 32 |
| 27th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150517th of 32 |
| 29th of 321337 | Elo rating | 155212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–6 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYJ 1–0 JAX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.