Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing13/23, 158 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing16 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving3 REC, 41 YDS
Texans- Davis MillsPassing27/45, 292 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Woody MarksRushing14 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- Nico CollinsReceiving7 REC, 136 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Sheldon Rankins 32 Yd Fumble Recovery29–36
- Q40:31Davis Mills 14 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)29–30
- Q47:29Dalton Schultz 7 Yd pass from Davis Mills (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)29–24
- Q412:16Jayden Higgins 12 Yd pass from Davis Mills (Davis Mills Pass to Nico Collins for Two-Point Conversion)29–18
- Q31:33Travis Etienne Jr. 6 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)29–10
- Q310:17Cam Little 33 Yd Field Goal23–10
- Q21:19Woody Marks 1 Yd Rush (Matthew Wright Kick)20–10
- Q24:02Cam Little 53 Yd Field Goal20–3
- Q28:05Matthew Wright 23 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q211:40Parker Washington 73 Yd Punt Return (Cam Little Kick)17–0
- Q18:17Parker Washington 7 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)10–0
- Q111:04Cam Little 32 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:17Parker Washington 7 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)JAX 10 – 0 HOU · JAX 55% → 72% +17JAX 55% → 72%+17 pts
- Q211:40Parker Washington 73 Yd Punt Return (Cam Little Kick)JAX 17 – 0 HOU · JAX 75% → 89% +13JAX 75% → 89%+13 pts
- Q21:19Woody Marks 1 Yd Rush (Matthew Wright Kick)JAX 20 – 10 HOU · HOU 8% → 21% +13HOU 8% → 21%+13 pts
- Q47:29Dalton Schultz 7 Yd pass from Davis Mills (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)JAX 29 – 24 HOU · HOU 3% → 19% +17HOU 3% → 19%+17 pts
- Q40:31Davis Mills 14 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)JAX 29 – 30 HOU · HOU <1% → 75% +75HOU <1% → 75%+75 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML JAX +110 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -2
- HOU 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 42.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -115
- JAX +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 18.0 – 20.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | −128 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · HOU: Davis Mills, usually C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +51 Elo | JAX 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 57.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3222.0 | Points scored | 21.024th of 32 |
| 16th of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 15.11st of 32 |
| 18th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +5.99th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.07 | Yards per play | 5.0525th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.52 | Yards allowed per play | 4.724th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 32 |
| 11th of 321520 | Opponent Elo | 15452nd of 32 |
| 21st of 321463 | Elo rating | 151416th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  JAX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
JAX 2–3 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.