Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing23/27, 244 YDS, 4 TD
- Nick ChubbRushing11 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian KirkReceiving4 REC, 64 YDS
Ravens- Cooper RushPassing14/20, 179 YDS, 3 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing15 CAR, 33 YDS, 1 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving5 REC, 72 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q410:30Ka'imi Fairbairn 34 Yd Field Goal44–10
- Q413:48Jaylin Noel 4 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)41–10
- Q32:41Derrick Henry 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)34–10
- Q35:53Ka'imi Fairbairn 57 Yd Field Goal34–3
- Q311:33Nick Chubb 27 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)31–3
- Q20:28Xavier Hutchinson 10 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)24–3
- Q25:36Nico Collins 10 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)17–3
- Q211:18Ka'imi Fairbairn 50 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q11:58Tyler Loop 27 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q19:24Xavier Hutchinson 5 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:24Xavier Hutchinson 5 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 7 – 0 BAL · HOU 57% → 74% +17HOU 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q11:58Tyler Loop 27 Yd Field GoalHOU 7 – 3 BAL · BAL 25% → 33% +7BAL 25% → 33%+7 pts
- Q211:18Ka'imi Fairbairn 50 Yd Field GoalHOU 10 – 3 BAL · HOU 68% → 75% +8HOU 68% → 75%+8 pts
- Q25:36Nico Collins 10 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 17 – 3 BAL · HOU 76% → 90% +14HOU 76% → 90%+14 pts
- Q20:28Xavier Hutchinson 10 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 24 – 3 BAL · HOU 91% → 98% +6HOU 91% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML HOU -145 / BAL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3.5
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -135
- BAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 22.0 – 19.5 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | −211 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · BAL: Cooper Rush, usually Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +82 Elo | HOU 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3216.0 | Points scored | 32.83rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3212.8 | Points allowed | 33.332nd of 32 |
| 14th of 32+3.3 | Margin | −0.519th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.09 | Yards per play | 6.442nd of 32 |
| 6th of 324.66 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6925th of 32 |
| 21st of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321472 | Opponent Elo | 15911st of 32 |
| 17th of 321489 | Elo rating | 15856th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  HOU |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–8 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 10–7 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 6–11 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 0–3 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.