Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Cam WardPassing10/26, 108 YDS, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing14 CAR, 64 YDS
- Elic AyomanorReceiving2 REC, 44 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing22/28, 233 YDS, 2 TD
- Woody MarksRushing17 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- Nico CollinsReceiving4 REC, 79 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:51Woody Marks 18 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–26
- Q49:26Jayden Higgins 24 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–19
- Q414:55Woody Marks 12 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–12
- Q213:28Ka'imi Fairbairn 43 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q14:49Ka'imi Fairbairn 47 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:49Ka'imi Fairbairn 47 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 3 HOU · HOU 76% → 82% +6HOU 76% → 82%+6 pts
- Q213:28Ka'imi Fairbairn 43 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 6 HOU · HOU 81% → 86% +5HOU 81% → 86%+5 pts
- Q414:55Woody Marks 12 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)TEN 0 – 12 HOU · HOU 87% → 97% +10HOU 87% → 97%+10 pts
- Q49:26Jayden Higgins 24 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)TEN 0 – 19 HOU · HOU 99% → >99% +1HOU 99% → >99%+1 pts
- Q44:51Woody Marks 18 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)TEN 0 – 26 HOU · HOU >99% → >99% +0HOU >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -7.5
- ML TEN +320 / HOU -425
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -10
- HOU 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 81.2%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -346
- TEN +346 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 16.0 – 23.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1301 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −40 | +4 | TEN: Cam Ward, usually Will Levis · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +254 Elo | HOU 81.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 72.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 79.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 77.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3217.0 | Points scored | 12.732nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3231.3 | Points allowed | 17.05th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−14.3 | Margin | −4.321st of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.63 | Yards per play | 4.9523rd of 32 |
| 30th of 326.13 | Yards allowed per play | 4.869th of 32 |
| 18th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 0–122nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321549 | Opponent Elo | 153211th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321301 | Elo rating | 147518th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  TEN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–14 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 2–8 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEN 1–3 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.