Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing14/32, 242 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
- J.K. DobbinsRushing9 CAR, 26 YDS
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving9 REC, 197 YDS, 1 TD
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing22/33, 282 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Joe MixonRushing25 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- Nico CollinsReceiving7 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:42Joe Mixon 17 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)12–32
- Q410:38D'Angelo Ross Defensive PAT Conversion12–25
- Q410:38Ladd McConkey 86 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker PAT blocked)12–23
- Q412:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 30 Yd Field Goal6–23
- Q30:13Eric Murray 38 Yd Interception Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)6–20
- Q34:48Ka'imi Fairbairn 37 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q20:03Ka'imi Fairbairn 41 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q20:58Nico Collins 13 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)6–7
- Q16:35Cameron Dicker 39 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q19:37Cameron Dicker 35 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:37Cameron Dicker 35 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 0 HOU · LAC 59% → 66% +7LAC 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q20:58Nico Collins 13 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)LAC 6 – 7 HOU · HOU 25% → 47% +22HOU 25% → 47%+22 pts
- Q20:03Ka'imi Fairbairn 41 Yd Field GoalLAC 6 – 10 HOU · HOU 47% → 58% +11HOU 47% → 58%+11 pts
- Q34:48Ka'imi Fairbairn 37 Yd Field GoalLAC 6 – 13 HOU · HOU 62% → 74% +12HOU 62% → 74%+12 pts
- Q30:13Eric Murray 38 Yd Interception Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)LAC 6 – 20 HOU · HOU 78% → 95% +17HOU 78% → 95%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML LAC -162 / HOU +138
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1
- LAC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 53.2%, market 59.5%
- Fair odds
- LAC -144
- HOU +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 22.0 – 19.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +5 | LAC: Justin Herbert · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +22 Elo | LAC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 53.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 59.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3223.6 | Points scored | 21.919th of 32 |
| 1st of 3217.7 | Points allowed | 21.914th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+5.9 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.42 | Yards per play | 5.1421st of 32 |
| 13th of 325.32 | Yards allowed per play | 5.104th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–3 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–4 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–2 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.