Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing23/39, 244 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Joe MixonRushing14 CAR, 57 YDS
- Tank DellReceiving6 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing28/41, 260 YDS, 1 TD
- Kareem HuntRushing11 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- Xavier WorthyReceiving7 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:18Harrison Butker 27 Yd Field Goal19–27
- Q411:51Ka'imi Fairbairn 38 Yd Field Goal19–24
- Q32:42Xavier Worthy 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)16–24
- Q311:40Tank Dell 30 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn PAT Failed)16–17
- Q20:19Harrison Butker 44 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q24:38Kareem Hunt 3 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)10–14
- Q210:09Dalton Schultz 10 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)10–7
- Q13:08Ka'imi Fairbairn 33 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q16:31Patrick Mahomes 15 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:31Patrick Mahomes 15 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)HOU 0 – 7 KC · KC 63% → 79% +16KC 63% → 79%+16 pts
- Q210:09Dalton Schultz 10 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 10 – 7 KC · HOU 27% → 47% +20HOU 27% → 47%+20 pts
- Q24:38Kareem Hunt 3 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)HOU 10 – 14 KC · KC 51% → 73% +22KC 51% → 73%+22 pts
- Q311:40Tank Dell 30 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn PAT Failed)HOU 16 – 17 KC · HOU 18% → 37% +18HOU 18% → 37%+18 pts
- Q32:42Xavier Worthy 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)HOU 16 – 24 KC · KC 62% → 87% +25KC 62% → 87%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- KC -3.5
- ML HOU +160 / KC -190
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -8.5
- KC 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.7 pts
- KC: Elo 77.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -180
- HOU +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 19.5 – 23.0 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1725 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +3 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +217 Elo | KC 77.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 74.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 64.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3223.4 | Points scored | 23.512th of 32 |
| 9th of 3221.4 | Points allowed | 18.54th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+2.0 | Margin | +5.011th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.11 | Yards per play | 5.0624th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.93 | Yards allowed per play | 5.227th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 32 |
| 13th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–7 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–10 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.