Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing27/37, 269 YDS, 3 TD
- Kareem HuntRushing16 CAR, 68 YDS
- Noah GrayReceiving4 REC, 66 YDS, 2 TD
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing21/35, 263 YDS, 1 TD
- Chuba HubbardRushing16 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- David MooreReceiving6 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Spencer Shrader 31 Yd Field Goal30–27
- Q41:46Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Rush (Chuba Hubbard Run for Two-Point Conversion)27–27
- Q412:37Eddy Pineiro 33 Yd Field Goal27–19
- Q32:42DeAndre Hopkins 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Spencer Shrader Kick)27–16
- Q36:26David Moore 1 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)20–16
- Q20:00Eddy Pineiro 29 Yd Field Goal20–9
- Q20:44Noah Gray 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Spencer Shrader Kick)20–6
- Q27:24Spencer Shrader 41 Yd Field Goal13–6
- Q214:42Eddy Pineiro 32 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q12:39Spencer Shrader 25 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q19:24Eddy Pineiro 30 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q113:35Noah Gray 35 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Spencer Shrader Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:35Noah Gray 35 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Spencer Shrader Kick)KC 7 – 0 CAR · KC 82% → 92% +9KC 82% → 92%+9 pts
- Q36:26David Moore 1 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)KC 20 – 16 CAR · CAR 4% → 16% +12CAR 4% → 16%+12 pts
- Q32:42DeAndre Hopkins 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Spencer Shrader Kick)KC 27 – 16 CAR · KC 84% → 96% +13KC 84% → 96%+13 pts
- Q41:46Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Rush (Chuba Hubbard Run for Two-Point Conversion)KC 27 – 27 CAR · CAR <1% → 44% +43CAR <1% → 44%+43 pts
- Q40:00Spencer Shrader 31 Yd Field GoalKC 30 – 27 CAR · KC 65% → 100% +35KC 65% → 100%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- KC -11.5
- ML KC -650 / CAR +425
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -15
- KC 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- KC: Elo 89.8%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -478
- CAR +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 27.0 – 15.5 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1703 | 1296 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | −3 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +378 Elo | KC 89.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 85.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 88.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 82.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 16.730th of 32 |
| 8th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 31.032nd of 32 |
| 9th of 32+4.9 | Margin | −14.332nd of 32 |
| 20th of 325.16 | Yards per play | 4.9126th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.09 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7928th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 1–325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | — |
| Underdog | — | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.