New York Giants at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing22/37, 190 YDS, 2 INT
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing18 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- Wan'Dale RobinsonReceiving5 REC, 51 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing15/25, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- Chuba HubbardRushing28 CAR, 153 YDS, 1 TD
- Jalen CokerReceiving3 REC, 41 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT7:53Eddy Pineiro 36 Yd Field Goal17–20
- Q40:05Graham Gano 42 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q48:33Daniel Jones 2 Yd Run (Graham Gano Kick)14–17
- Q33:33Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–17
- Q38:54Tyrone Tracy Jr. 32 Yd Run (Graham Gano Kick)7–10
- Q214:55Eddy Pineiro 53 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q17:48Ja'Tavion Sanders 5 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:54Tyrone Tracy Jr. 32 Yd Run (Graham Gano Kick)NYG 7 – 10 CAR · NYG 22% → 47% +25NYG 22% → 47%+25 pts
- Q33:33Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)NYG 7 – 17 CAR · CAR 56% → 83% +27CAR 56% → 83%+27 pts
- Q48:33Daniel Jones 2 Yd Run (Graham Gano Kick)NYG 14 – 17 CAR · NYG 6% → 36% +29NYG 6% → 36%+29 pts
- Q40:05Graham Gano 42 Yd Field GoalNYG 17 – 17 CAR · NYG <1% → 51% +51NYG <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT7:53Eddy Pineiro 36 Yd Field GoalNYG 17 – 20 CAR · CAR 45% → 65% +20CAR 45% → 65%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYG 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYG -3.5
- NYG 63%
- Fair odds
- NYG -175
- CAR +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 22.6 – 18.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1362 | 1273 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | −4 | NYG: Daniel Jones · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYG +93 Elo | NYG 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYG 63.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3215.4 | Points scored | 16.329th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.4 | Points allowed | 32.632nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−7.0 | Margin | −16.232nd of 32 |
| 27th of 324.76 | Yards per play | 4.8726th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.65 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9330th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYG |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | — | — |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.