New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing23/34, 257 YDS, 2 TD
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing18 CAR, 129 YDS
- Darius SlaytonReceiving8 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing28/40, 284 YDS, 1 TD
- Geno SmithRushing4 CAR, 72 YDS
- Tyler LockettReceiving4 REC, 75 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:55Bryce Ford-Wheaton 60 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)29–20
- Q42:09Jaxon Smith-Njigba 5 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)23–20
- Q411:54Greg Joseph 24 Yd Field Goal23–13
- Q30:46Greg Joseph 31 Yd Field Goal20–13
- Q36:33Jason Myers 48 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q310:41Darius Slayton 30 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Greg Joseph Kick)17–10
- Q20:02Jason Myers 43 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q20:22Greg Joseph 38 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q29:09Wan'Dale Robinson 7 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Greg Joseph Kick)7–7
- Q12:14Rayshawn Jenkins 102 Yd Fumble Return (Jason Myers Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:14Rayshawn Jenkins 102 Yd Fumble Return (Jason Myers Kick)NYG 0 – 7 SEA · SEA 72% → 86% +14SEA 72% → 86%+14 pts
- Q29:09Wan'Dale Robinson 7 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Greg Joseph Kick)NYG 7 – 7 SEA · NYG 14% → 30% +16NYG 14% → 30%+16 pts
- Q310:41Darius Slayton 30 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Greg Joseph Kick)NYG 17 – 10 SEA · NYG 33% → 60% +26NYG 33% → 60%+26 pts
- Q30:46Greg Joseph 31 Yd Field GoalNYG 20 – 13 SEA · NYG 56% → 70% +14NYG 56% → 70%+14 pts
- Q42:09Jaxon Smith-Njigba 5 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)NYG 23 – 20 SEA · SEA <1% → 19% +19SEA <1% → 19%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -7.5
- ML NYG +280 / SEA -350
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -6.5
- SEA 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 71.5%, market 74.7%
- Fair odds
- SEA -292
- NYG +292 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 17.0 – 24.5 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −6 | +7 | NYG: Daniel Jones · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +160 Elo | SEA 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 70.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 74.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3215.0 | Points scored | 25.59th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.0 | Points allowed | 21.314th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−6.0 | Margin | +4.311th of 32 |
| 25th of 324.69 | Yards per play | 5.869th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.33 | Yards allowed per play | 4.714th of 32 |
| 11th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYG 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.