Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing33/44, 327 YDS, 1 TD
- Zach CharbonnetRushing14 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- DK MetcalfReceiving10 REC, 129 YDS, 1 TD
Patriots- Jacoby BrissettPassing15/27, 149 YDS, 1 TD
- Antonio GibsonRushing11 CAR, 96 YDS
- Hunter HenryReceiving8 REC, 109 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT4:37Jason Myers 31 Yd Field Goal23–20
- Q40:55Jason Myers 38 Yd Field Goal20–20
- Q412:43Rhamondre Stevenson 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)17–20
- Q20:00Jason Myers 44 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q22:31Joey Slye 28 Yd Field Goal14–13
- Q25:47Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)14–10
- Q211:05Joey Slye 29 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q12:50DK Metcalf 56 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)7–7
- Q14:56Ja'Lynn Polk 5 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Joey Slye Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:50DK Metcalf 56 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 7 – 7 NE · SEA 39% → 59% +19SEA 39% → 59%+19 pts
- Q25:47Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 14 – 10 NE · SEA 48% → 70% +22SEA 48% → 70%+22 pts
- Q412:43Rhamondre Stevenson 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)SEA 17 – 20 NE · NE 25% → 62% +36NE 25% → 62%+36 pts
- Q40:55Jason Myers 38 Yd Field GoalSEA 20 – 20 NE · SEA 7% → 51% +44SEA 7% → 51%+44 pts
- OT4:37Jason Myers 31 Yd Field GoalSEA 23 – 20 NE · SEA 53% → 77% +25SEA 53% → 77%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -3.5
- ML SEA -165 / NE +140
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -2
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -148
- NE +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 21.5 – 18.0 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +2 | SEA: Geno Smith · NE: Jacoby Brissett, usually Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +46 Elo | SEA 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3221.4 | Points scored | 13.931st of 32 |
| 25th of 3223.6 | Points allowed | 21.515th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−2.2 | Margin | −7.629th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.52 | Yards per play | 4.6029th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.50 | Yards allowed per play | 4.704th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 15th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 1–731st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.