New York Jets at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Trevor SiemianPassing8/20, 70 YDS
- Breece HallRushing37 CAR, 178 YDS, 1 TD
- Garrett WilsonReceiving2 REC, 34 YDS
Patriots- Bailey ZappePassing12/30, 88 YDS, 2 INT
- Ezekiel ElliottRushing13 CAR, 54 YDS
- Jalen ReagorReceiving1 REC, 33 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:47Breece Hall 50 Yd Run (Breece Hall Run for Two-Point Conversion)17–3
- Q48:08Greg Zuerlein 33 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q26:07Greg Zuerlein 40 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q29:32Chad Ryland 30 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q12:04Greg Zuerlein 21 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:04Greg Zuerlein 21 Yd Field GoalNYJ 3 – 0 NE · NYJ 49% → 58% +8NYJ 49% → 58%+8 pts
- Q29:32Chad Ryland 30 Yd Field GoalNYJ 3 – 3 NE · NE 42% → 51% +9NE 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q26:07Greg Zuerlein 40 Yd Field GoalNYJ 6 – 3 NE · NYJ 49% → 59% +10NYJ 49% → 59%+10 pts
- Q48:08Greg Zuerlein 33 Yd Field GoalNYJ 9 – 3 NE · NYJ 69% → 84% +15NYJ 69% → 84%+15 pts
- Q41:47Breece Hall 50 Yd Run (Breece Hall Run for Two-Point Conversion)NYJ 17 – 3 NE · NYJ 99% → >99% +1NYJ 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Patriots 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- NE 50%
- Fair odds
- NE -104
- NYJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 19.2 – 19.5 NE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −8 | −8 | NYJ: Trevor Siemian, usually Aaron Rodgers · NE: Bailey Zappe, usually Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +3 Elo | NE 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 51.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3215.7 | Points scored | 14.632nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3222.0 | Points allowed | 21.817th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−6.3 | Margin | −7.328th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.36 | Yards per play | 4.7629th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.71 | Yards allowed per play | 4.745th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 1–631st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYJ 0–1 NE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.