Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing27/37, 305 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Clyde Edwards-HelaireRushing13 CAR, 37 YDS
- Rashee RiceReceiving9 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
Patriots- Bailey ZappePassing23/31, 180 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kevin HarrisRushing4 CAR, 25 YDS, 1 TD
- Hunter HenryReceiving7 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q48:24Kevin Harris 18 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)27–17
- Q33:40Harrison Butker 54 Yd Field Goal27–10
- Q39:22Clyde Edwards-Helaire 6 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)24–10
- Q310:29Harrison Butker 29 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q20:35Jerick McKinnon 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)14–10
- Q24:47Chad Ryland 25 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q27:09Hunter Henry 16 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Chad Ryland Kick)7–7
- Q11:30Rashee Rice 4 Yd pass from Jerick McKinnon (Harrison Butker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:30Rashee Rice 4 Yd pass from Jerick McKinnon (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 7 – 0 NE · KC 66% → 82% +16KC 66% → 82%+16 pts
- Q27:09Hunter Henry 16 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Chad Ryland Kick)KC 7 – 7 NE · NE 18% → 35% +18NE 18% → 35%+18 pts
- Q24:47Chad Ryland 25 Yd Field GoalKC 7 – 10 NE · NE 36% → 46% +10NE 36% → 46%+10 pts
- Q20:35Jerick McKinnon 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 14 – 10 NE · KC 53% → 76% +23KC 53% → 76%+23 pts
- Q39:22Clyde Edwards-Helaire 6 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 24 – 10 NE · KC 84% → 95% +11KC 84% → 95%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -6.5
- KC 72%
- Fair odds
- KC -215
- NE +215 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 22.2 – 16.7 NE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1367 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −22 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · NE: Bailey Zappe, usually Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +164 Elo | KC 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 68.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3222.5 | Points scored | 13.032nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.5 | Points allowed | 20.914th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+4.9 | Margin | −7.929th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.64 | Yards per play | 4.7228th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.93 | Yards allowed per play | 4.784th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 6th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 1–531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.