Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing21/34, 193 YDS, 1 TD
- Raheem MostertRushing12 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyreek HillReceiving8 REC, 62 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing20/30, 185 YDS, 2 TD
- Isiah PachecoRushing16 CAR, 66 YDS
- Noah GrayReceiving3 REC, 34 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q30:22Raheem Mostert 13 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)14–21
- Q34:47Cedrick Wilson Jr. 31 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)7–21
- Q20:33Bryan Cook 59 Yd Fumble Return (Harrison Butker Kick)0–21
- Q22:31Jerick McKinnon 17 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)0–14
- Q112:03Rashee Rice 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:03Rashee Rice 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)MIA 0 – 7 KC · KC 51% → 68% +17KC 51% → 68%+17 pts
- Q22:31Jerick McKinnon 17 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)MIA 0 – 14 KC · KC 73% → 89% +16KC 73% → 89%+16 pts
- Q20:33Bryan Cook 59 Yd Fumble Return (Harrison Butker Kick)MIA 0 – 21 KC · KC 89% → 97% +8KC 89% → 97%+8 pts
- Q34:47Cedrick Wilson Jr. 31 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 7 – 21 KC · MIA 1% → 6% +5MIA 1% → 6%+5 pts
- Q30:22Raheem Mostert 13 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 14 – 21 KC · MIA 4% → 19% +15MIA 4% → 19%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- KC 51%
- Fair odds
- KC -103
- MIA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 22.8 – 23.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +6 Elo | KC 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3233.9 | Points scored | 23.412th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.5 | Points allowed | 16.12nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+8.4 | Margin | +7.36th of 32 |
| 1st of 327.33 | Yards per play | 5.844th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.10 | Yards allowed per play | 4.753rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.