Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing18/30, 203 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Isiah PachecoRushing20 CAR, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving6 REC, 60 YDS
Jets- Zach WilsonPassing28/39, 245 YDS, 2 TD
- Breece HallRushing6 CAR, 56 YDS
- Allen LazardReceiving3 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q410:51Harrison Butker 26 Yd Field Goal23–20
- Q310:40Allen Lazard 10 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Zach Wilson Run for Two-Point Conversion)20–20
- Q22:15Harrison Butker 37 Yd Field Goal20–12
- Q26:26C.J. Uzomah 1 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Greg Zuerlein Kick)17–12
- Q29:50Greg Zuerlein 31 Yd Field Goal17–5
- Q213:20Jawaan Taylor Face Mask, Enforced In End Zone For Safety17–2
- Q13:24Noah Gray 34 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)17–0
- Q18:32Isiah Pacheco 48 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)10–0
- Q111:35Harrison Butker 37 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:32Isiah Pacheco 48 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 10 – 0 NYJ · KC 62% → 78% +16KC 62% → 78%+16 pts
- Q13:24Noah Gray 34 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 17 – 0 NYJ · KC 79% → 90% +11KC 79% → 90%+11 pts
- Q26:26C.J. Uzomah 1 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Greg Zuerlein Kick)KC 17 – 12 NYJ · NYJ 14% → 31% +17NYJ 14% → 31%+17 pts
- Q310:40Allen Lazard 10 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Zach Wilson Run for Two-Point Conversion)KC 20 – 20 NYJ · NYJ 20% → 47% +27NYJ 20% → 47%+27 pts
- Q410:51Harrison Butker 26 Yd Field GoalKC 23 – 20 NYJ · KC 52% → 69% +17KC 52% → 69%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -2
- KC 58%
- Fair odds
- KC -122
- NYJ +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 22.1 – 20.7 NYJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | 0 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · NYJ: Zach Wilson, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +53 Elo | KC 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3226.0 | Points scored | 14.030th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3213.3 | Points allowed | 20.312th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+12.7 | Margin | −6.323rd of 32 |
| 6th of 325.83 | Yards per play | 4.2230th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.55 | Yards allowed per play | 4.799th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–19th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.