Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing22/35, 253 YDS, 1 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing21 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh ReynoldsReceiving4 REC, 80 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing21/39, 226 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Patrick MahomesRushing6 CAR, 45 YDS
- Marquez Valdes-ScantlingReceiving2 REC, 48 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:06David Montgomery 8 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)21–20
- Q412:11Harrison Butker 39 Yd Field Goal14–20
- Q32:10Harrison Butker 35 Yd Field Goal14–17
- Q310:54Brian Branch 50 Yd Interception Return (Riley Patterson Kick)14–14
- Q20:34Blake Bell 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–14
- Q211:50Rashee Rice 1 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–7
- Q12:46Amon-Ra St. Brown 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:46Amon-Ra St. Brown 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)DET 7 – 0 KC · DET 45% → 65% +19DET 45% → 65%+19 pts
- Q211:50Rashee Rice 1 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)DET 7 – 7 KC · KC 34% → 54% +21KC 34% → 54%+21 pts
- Q20:34Blake Bell 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)DET 7 – 14 KC · KC 54% → 76% +22KC 54% → 76%+22 pts
- Q310:54Brian Branch 50 Yd Interception Return (Riley Patterson Kick)DET 14 – 14 KC · DET 23% → 47% +24DET 23% → 47%+24 pts
- Q47:06David Montgomery 8 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)DET 21 – 20 KC · DET 13% → 55% +43DET 13% → 55%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -1.5
- KC 55%
- Fair odds
- KC -123
- DET +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 21.2 – 22.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DET: Jared Goff · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +36 Elo | KC 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.