NFL · 2026
Kansas City Chiefs
6-2 · #13 of 32 by Elo
Elo rating
1563
#13 of 32 · 1500 is average
Market rating
1584
#6 of 32 by recent lines
This season
+80
Elo change since opening night
Forecasts on their games
88%
7–1 this season
Offense
+0.2 pts
#17 of 32 · scored a game above average
Defense
+2.2 pts
#3 of 32 · allowed a game below average
By the numbers
This season, regular season, each with its league rank. Scoring and margin are a game; opponent Elo is how strong the teams they've played are.
- Points scored
- 25.3
- 10th of 32
- Points allowed
- 17.9
- 3rd fewest of 32
- Margin
- +7.4
- 5th of 32
- Yards per play
- 6.26
- 2nd of 32
- Yards allowed per play
- 4.88
- 4th of 32
- At home
- 4–0
- 1st of 32
- On the road
- 2–2
- 14th of 32
- Opponent Elo
- 1464
- 29th toughest of 32
Season outlook
From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season and the playoffs, with standings ties broken by coin flip. Every team and how it works
Projected record
11-6
Now 6-2 · middle 80%: 9–13 wins
Make the playoffs
87%
Division: 20% · Top seed: 4%
About 10 wins usually gets them in
Reach the Super Bowl
7%
Win it all
3%
In 328 of 10,000 simulations
Playoff chances this season
Their chance to make the playoffs from each day's simulation of the rest of the season, since Nov 3. Now 87%.
Upcoming
Forecasts for their next games. Their next 3 opponents average 1512 Elo, the 12th-toughest stretch of the league's 32.
Players
Who's been playing, busiest first. Each has projections, prop lines and recent games against the line.
Rating history
Elo over the last two seasons. The dashed line is league average.
Against the line
This season, against each game's closing spread and total.
- Against the spread
- 4–4
- Last 10
- 4–4
- As the favorite
- 4–3
- As the underdog
- 0–1
- Overs–unders
- 3–5
- Overs–unders, last 10
- 3–5
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Recent results
Last ten games and whether the forecast hit.
Last 10, oldest first: L L W W W W W L L W
- W
vs NYJ 35–12Picked KC 81%Nov 8Hit - L
@ DEN 24–28Picked KC 51%Nov 1Miss - L
@ SEA 3–20Picked SEA 57%Oct 25Hit - W
vs LAC 22–6Picked KC 78%Oct 18Hit - W
@ LV 30–27Picked KC 64%Oct 4Hit - W
@ MIA 24–10Picked KC 81%Sep 27Hit - W
vs IND 33–30Picked KC 69%Sep 20Hit - Wvs DEN 31–10Picked KC 53%Sep 14Hit
- L@ LV 12–14Picked KC 66%Jan 4Miss
- Lvs DEN 13–20Picked DEN 88%Dec 25Hit
Injury report
Current ESPN report, with what the model subtracts for their next game.
Patrick Mahomes QB
−31 EloQuestionableWorth 88 Elo more than Justin Fields
Chiefs coach Andy Reid said Monday that Mahomes (elbow) is considered day-to-day as this Sunday's game against the Falcons approaches, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports.
Jalen Royals WR
ActiveRoyals caught both of his targets for 18 yards Sunday in a 35-12 rout of the Jets.
Peter Woods DT
Questionablequestionable
Mansoor Delane CB
Questionablequestionable
Noah Gray TE
ActiveGray caught his only target for 11 yards Sunday in a 35-12 win against the Jets.
Cyrus Allen WR
ActiveAllen failed to catch his only target in Sunday's 35-12 win over the Jets.
Jaylon Moore OT
QuestionableHead coach Andy Reid stated Moore (ankle) is considered "day-to-day," Charles Goldman of AtoZSports.com reports.
Ben VanSumeren FB
ActiveGarrett Nussmeier QB
ActiveDiego Pounds OT
ActiveXavier Worthy WR
QuestionableCoach Andy Reid said Monday that Worthy (hamstring) is considered day-to-day in advance of Sunday's game against the Falcons, Matt McMullen of the Chiefs' official site reports.
Emmett Johnson RB
ActiveJohnson rushed six times for 34 yards and a touchdown and returned one kickoff for 29 yards in the Chiefs' 35-12 win over the Jets on Sunday.
Rashee Rice WR
ActiveRice secured five of seven targets for 49 yards in the Chiefs' 35-12 win over the Jets on Sunday.
Travis Kelce TE
ActiveKelce brought in four of six targets for 72 yards in the Chiefs' 35-12 win over the Jets on Sunday. He also rushed once for one yard.
Harrison Butker PK
ActiveButker missed his only field-goal attempt and made all five of his PATs during Sunday's 35-12 win over the Jets.
Kenneth Walker III RB
ActiveWalker rushed 18 times for 102 yards and a touchdown and brought in all four targets for 41 yards and two more scores in the Chiefs' 35-12 win over the Jets on Sunday.
Nikko Remigio WR
ActiveRemigio is officially active for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Tyreke Smith DE
ActiveR Mason Thomas DE
ActiveL'Jarius Sneed CB
Injured ReserveThe Chiefs placed Sneed (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.