Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Chiefs favored by 3.5, and the forecast follows it (Chiefs 62%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings land in about the same place, at 61%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Chiefs rate higher (1563 to 1443 Elo) and the Falcons have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Chiefs
Now 87%
93%
with a win
80%
with a loss
This game is worth 13 points of playoff chance to them.
Falcons
Now 20%
28%
with a win
14%
with a loss
This game is worth 14 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
ATL went from 39% to 38% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Chiefs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- KC -3.5
- ML KC -185 / ATL +154
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -3
- KC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- KC: Elo 60.6%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -164
- ATL +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- KC 24.5 – 21.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −13 | −3 | KC: Patrick Mahomes (65%) or Justin Fields (35%) · ATL: Michael Penix Jr. (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | KC +75 Elo | KC 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 58.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 62.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.3 | Points scored | 20.923rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.9 | Points allowed | 24.820th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+7.4 | Margin | −3.923rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.26 | Yards per play | 5.4814th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.88 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3819th of 32 |
| 14th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–319th of 32 |
| 29th of 321464 | Opponent Elo | 15433rd of 32 |
| 13th of 321563 | Elo rating | 144319th of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.2 | Offense, adjusted | −1.022nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+2.2 | Defense, adjusted | −1.021st of 32 |
Player props
Projected from each player's share of his team's targets, carries and passes, next to DraftKings lines. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 17,384 graded NFL lines (log loss 0.689 vs our model's 0.721). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −1.9% a bet over 4,421 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick MahomesKC | QB · 33 attempts | 253.7 | 245.0 | 239.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 50%* | 49% | |
| Michael Penix Jr.ATL | QB · 31 attempts | 212.9 | 193.0 | 214.5 | 5/10 games over this line | 49%* | 43% |
* DraftKings lists these lines in ESPN's feed without prices, so each is read as the book's 50/50 point, the chance leans only slightly toward our model, and a parlay can't show what the book would pay for them.
What if…
Pick something that might happen in this game and see how every other line's chance moves if it does.
- Noah Gray (KC) over 11.5 receiving yards50%60%
- Emmett Johnson (KC) over 12.5 receiving yards50%61%
- Josh Downs (KC) over 32.5 receiving yards49%59%
- Kenneth Walker III (KC) over 21.5 receiving yards49%59%
- Travis Kelce (KC) over 48.5 receiving yards49%59%
- Rashee Rice (KC) over 57.5 receiving yards48%59%
- Noah Gray (KC) over 1.5 receptions49%57%
- Emmett Johnson (KC) over 1.5 receptions49%57%
- Josh Downs (KC) over 3.5 receptions48%56%
- Rashee Rice (KC) over 5.5 receptions48%56%
His other lines (6)
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 254.5 passing + rushing yards50%90%
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 21.5 completions50%76%
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 32.5 pass attempts50%70%
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 1.5 passing touchdowns49%65%
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 0.5 interceptions thrown49%47%
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 10.5 rushing yards49%48%
What each chance becomes if it happens, from how players' stats and results moved together in 467 past games, the same numbers behind same-game parlays (tested on games the fit never saw). It says how things are linked, not that any of it will happen.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Chiefs
25 listedPatrick Mahomes QB
−31 EloQuestionableWorth 88 Elo more than Justin Fields
Chiefs coach Andy Reid said Monday that Mahomes (elbow) is considered day-to-day as this Sunday's game against the Falcons approaches, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports.
Jalen Royals WR
ActiveRoyals caught both of his targets for 18 yards Sunday in a 35-12 rout of the Jets.
Peter Woods DT
Questionablequestionable
Mansoor Delane CB
Questionablequestionable
Noah Gray TE
ActiveGray caught his only target for 11 yards Sunday in a 35-12 win against the Jets.
Cyrus Allen WR
ActiveAllen failed to catch his only target in Sunday's 35-12 win over the Jets.
Jaylon Moore OT
QuestionableHead coach Andy Reid stated Moore (ankle) is considered "day-to-day," Charles Goldman of AtoZSports.com reports.
Ben VanSumeren FB
ActiveGarrett Nussmeier QB
ActiveDiego Pounds OT
ActiveXavier Worthy WR
QuestionableCoach Andy Reid said Monday that Worthy (hamstring) is considered day-to-day in advance of Sunday's game against the Falcons, Matt McMullen of the Chiefs' official site reports.
Emmett Johnson RB
ActiveJohnson rushed six times for 34 yards and a touchdown and returned one kickoff for 29 yards in the Chiefs' 35-12 win over the Jets on Sunday.
Falcons
25 listedKhalil Herbert RB
ActiveHerbert carried the ball once for seven yards and caught two of his three targets for two yards during Atlanta's loss to the Bengals on Sunday.
Olamide Zaccheaus WR
ActiveZaccheaus caught one of three targets for five yards during the Falcons' 34-17 loss to the Bengals on Sunday in Madrid. He also returned one kickoff for 28 yards and returned two punts for minus-three yards.
Jahan Dotson WR
ActiveDotson caught two passes for 16 yards on two targets in Sunday's 34-17 loss to the Bengals.
Andrew Vorhees G
ActiveThe Ravens traded Vorhees and a conditional 2028 sixth-round pick to the Falcons on Tuesday in exchange for Ryan Neuzil, Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com reports.
Zachariah Branch WR
Doubtfuldoubtful
Jack Strand QB
ActiveAndy Dalton QB
ActiveRobert Longerbeam CB
ActiveBilly Bowman Jr. CB
ActiveKyle Pitts Sr. TE
ActivePitts caught three of five targets for 23 yards in Sunday's 34-17 loss to the Bengals.
Michael Penix Jr. QB
ActivePenix completed 20 of 31 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown with an interception in Sunday's 34-17 loss to Cincinnati. He added 50 rushing yards on three carries.
Drake London WR
ActiveLondon caught all five of his targets for 68 yards in Sunday's 34-17 loss to the Bengals.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 1–0 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.