New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
KC went from 80% to 81% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 5:51 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sat, Nov 7, 9:50 PM ESTGarrett Wilson out · forecast KC 81%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Geno SmithPassing18/32, 165 YDS
- Breece HallRushing15 CAR, 61 YDS
- Omar Cooper Jr.Receiving8 REC, 58 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing23/31, 242 YDS, 2 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing18 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving4 REC, 72 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:35Emmett Johnson 6 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)12–35
- Q30:11Kenneth Walker III 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)12–28
- Q310:20Travis Kelce 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)12–21
- Q22:16Jason Sanders 54 Yd Field Goal12–14
- Q25:37Kenneth Walker III 25 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)9–14
- Q28:12Jason Sanders 49 Yd Field Goal9–7
- Q214:56Kenneth Walker III 7 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)6–7
- Q14:35Jason Sanders 48 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q16:47Jason Sanders 23 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:35Jason Sanders 48 Yd Field GoalNYJ 6 – 0 KC · NYJ 28% → 35% +7NYJ 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q214:56Kenneth Walker III 7 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)NYJ 6 – 7 KC · KC 63% → 80% +17KC 63% → 80%+17 pts
- Q28:12Jason Sanders 49 Yd Field GoalNYJ 9 – 7 KC · NYJ 22% → 29% +8NYJ 22% → 29%+8 pts
- Q25:37Kenneth Walker III 25 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)NYJ 9 – 14 KC · KC 70% → 86% +17KC 70% → 86%+17 pts
- Q310:20Travis Kelce 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)NYJ 12 – 21 KC · KC 78% → 92% +15KC 78% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Chiefs 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- KC -9.5
- ML NYJ +400 / KC -535
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -10.5
- KC 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- KC: Elo 82.0%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- KC -424
- NYJ +424 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 19.5 – 29.0 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1319 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +37 | +18 | NYJ: Geno Smith · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Injuries | −15 | — | Key absences: Garrett Wilson |
| Elo ratings | KC +263 Elo | KC 82.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 82.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 82.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 80.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3221.3 | Points scored | 23.911th of 32 |
| 16th of 3223.5 | Points allowed | 18.74th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.3 | Margin | +5.17th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.47 | Yards per play | 6.303rd of 32 |
| 8th of 324.99 | Yards allowed per play | 5.049th of 32 |
| 27th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 149319th of 32 |
| 31st of 321319 | Elo rating | 154913th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3–1 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–3–1 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYJ 0–1 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.