New York Jets at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Geno SmithPassing8/15, 119 YDS, 1 TD
- Braelon AllenRushing14 CAR, 59 YDS
- Isaiah WilliamsReceiving2 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
Bears- Tyson BagentPassing25/34, 268 YDS, 1 INT
- Kyle MonangaiRushing30 CAR, 146 YDS, 2 TD
- Rome OdunzeReceiving6 REC, 94 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q49:16Isaiah Williams 58 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders PAT Failed)12–23
- Q410:01Cairo Santos 21 Yd Field Goal6–23
- Q32:26Kyle Monangai 5 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)6–20
- Q37:00Jason Sanders 30 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q20:00Cairo Santos 30 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q22:29Cairo Santos 30 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q28:15Jason Sanders 36 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q10:23Kyle Monangai 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:23Kyle Monangai 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)NYJ 0 – 7 CHI · CHI 62% → 79% +17CHI 62% → 79%+17 pts
- Q28:15Jason Sanders 36 Yd Field GoalNYJ 3 – 7 CHI · NYJ 20% → 28% +7NYJ 20% → 28%+7 pts
- Q22:29Cairo Santos 30 Yd Field GoalNYJ 3 – 10 CHI · CHI 73% → 80% +8CHI 73% → 80%+8 pts
- Q37:00Jason Sanders 30 Yd Field GoalNYJ 6 – 13 CHI · NYJ 11% → 17% +7NYJ 11% → 17%+7 pts
- Q32:26Kyle Monangai 5 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)NYJ 6 – 20 CHI · CHI 84% → 97% +12CHI 84% → 97%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bears 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -3.5
- ML NYJ +164 / CHI -198
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -4.5
- CHI 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- CHI: Elo 64.9%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CHI -176
- NYJ +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 20.0 – 23.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1366 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +39 | −117 | NYJ: Geno Smith, usually Aaron Rodgers · CHI: Case Keenum, usually Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +107 Elo | CHI 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 63.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 63.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3221.3 | Points scored | 29.75th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.3 | Points allowed | 17.77th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +12.04th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.04 | Yards per play | 5.868th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.75 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0829th of 32 |
| 7th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 1–119th of 32 |
| 29th of 321431 | Opponent Elo | 15269th of 32 |
| 31st of 321366 | Elo rating | 15937th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NYJ |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.